PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
Last week in local cotton market, sluggish business activity was seen, buyers didn’t show interest due extra ordinary fluctuations in prices globally, so the uncertainty prevailed among buyers and ginners. Both ways were remained confused and shaken their decisions. In local cotton market, price of cotton remained firm due to the low business trading, hence KCA increased in this week. The reason behind increasing the spot rate is alarming decrease in the production of cotton, KCA closed at the level of 12200\maund by the end of week.
Overall bullish trend prevails in international cotton markets but during the last two weeks extraordinary fluctuation was observed in the Rate of New York Cotton as sometimes the rate increase by two cent or some time by three cent. Over all bullish trend, was witnessed in international cotton markets all over the world. In the weekly USDA export report, exports increased by 25 %. The reason behind fluctuation in the rate of New York Cotton is that this time too China is the biggest importer with 58000 bales. The rates of cotton were increased in cotton producing countries which includes Brazil, Argentina, Central Asian states and Australia especially increasing trend was witnessed in the rate of cotton in India.
According to World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report production of cotton decreased in America as compared to last month. It shows that production was 250,000 less as per March 9 report. In the ending stock of this month out of 4.2 million bales around 100, 000 bales were less. According to the estimates of world demand and supply of cotton as compared to last month the production is less as well as the ending stock is less. But the cotton production worldwide witnessed a decrease of 830,000 bales. The biggest reason is the decrease in the production of cotton in Brazil and America. The pace of import of cotton and the signs of increase in demand internationally also increased the demand in Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam.
What the big mills have imported will be relatively cheap for them as the dollar has come down to around Rs. 157 to Rs. 158 but on the other side they will suffer some loss in what way have exported because the rate of dollar is decreased. The price of cotton in Sindh is in between Rs. 11,500 to Rs. 12,500 per maund. The price of Phutti in Sindh is in between Rs. 4000 to Rs. 5000 per 40 kg. The price of cotton in Punjab is in between Rs. 11,700 to Rs. 12,900 per maund. The price of Phutti in Punjab is in between Rs. 4800 to 6100 per 40 kgs. The price of Phutti in Overall prices of cotton were in the range of USC 85~100 Lbs. (11500~12900/ maund).
| Opening Of the Week | Closing Of the Week | Change | |
| Lowest | 88.00 | 88.00 | 0.00 |
| Highest | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 |
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 65.05 with lower level as compared to last week closing figures.
In this week, crude oil prices showed mix trend and closed on positive side at the end of week.
In last day of the week, Crude Oil price closed at USD 65.61 with increase of USD 0.56 cents as of opening figure of week.
| Opening of Week | Closing Of Week | Change | |
| Price | 65.05 | 65.61 | 0.56 |
EXCHANGE RATE
In last week values of Pak rupee appreciated against US Dollar’s, other major currencies showed mix trend in both Interbank and open markets.
At the end of week, Euro closed on a positive note with figure of 1.19 and British Pound also closed on positive note with figure 1.39 against USD.
| Selling | Buying | |
| LC Sight | 157.14 | 157.09 |
| LC 120 Days | 156.91 | 156.86 |
| Open Market | 159.18 | 155.53 |
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with higher levels on Monday as compare to previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed mix trend in this week and fluctuated on both ways, at the end closed on negative side at the end of week.
At last day of the week, MAY 2021 closed at 87.56 with downward of 76 points.
At last day of the week, JUL 2021 closed at 88.57 with drop of 72 point.
At last day of the week, OCT 2021 closed at 84.80 with decrease of 99 point.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 92.60 with low level from previous week’s closing figure.
In this week Index “A” showed mix sentiment, while closed on negative side by then end of week.
At last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 91.15 with the decrease of 145 points.
| Opening of the Week | Closing of the Week | Change | |
| Index A | 92.60 | 91.15 | 1.45 |
| Index B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
Local yarn market moderately remained active rather than aggressive this week. Despite an initial drop-down in NY cotton, spinners reflected a hostile backlash as to the prices. It was not until a rise in NY cotton when the spinners were in a comfortable position to book stocks. Trading activity remained slower. Buyers refrained from surplus buying and resorted to buying till the extent of compulsion only.
Despite an increase in crude oil from $64.01 to $66.02, PSF remained firm and didn’t see a price rise.
Local spinners still have comfortable bookings up-to 50-60 days.
| Count | Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS | Price US$/Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 2396 – 2475 | 610 – 630 |
| 20/1 CD | 2475 – 2580 | 630 – 655 |
| 30/1 CD | 2830 – 2900 | 720 – 740 |
| 20/1 CM | 2848 – 2927 | 725 – 745 |
| 30/1 PC 52:48 | 2200 – 2396 | 560 – 610 |
| 40/1 CM | 3536 – 3654 | 900 – 930 |
| 60/1 CM | 4793 – 5048 | 1220 – 1285 |
| 80/1 CM | 6050 – 6266 | 1540 – 1595 |
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market remained under lackluster business activity due to fluctuation in cotton prices internationally and domestic market. Customers remained on side line and very few numbers of enquiries were floated. Suppliers also showed flexible attitude and showed full interest to grab business where they got some reasonable bids. Although suppliers are under comfortable sales position but they don’t want to miss any opportunity and trying to grab each and every orders which seems reasonable to them.
Cotton prices in international market remained soft which was another reason of flexible attitude from spinners. It is expected that prices may show slight soft trend in days to come if buying remains slow. However, it all depends how customers proceed for old orders L/Cs and new orders decision. if we look at the Chinese customers, they are slow due to expected decline in prices. however, good sign is that despite slow business activity customers are opening all L/C of old orders. European customers kept on checking prices for normal as well as specialized yarns mainly for the pending enquiries which were on hold due to high asking prices. So, we might see orders placements in days to come as market is flexible.
| Count | USD / Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 610 – 620 |
| 20/1 CD | 620 – 630 |
| 20/1 CM | 660 – 670 |
| 16/1 CM | 650 – 660 |
| 20/2 CD | 635 – 645 |
| 24/2 CD | 665 – 675 |
| 10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING | 525 – 535 |
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In current week under review the local fabric market the local fabric market remained slow throughout the week for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Finishers floated inquiries in limited numbers and weavers booked orders after tough negotiations but at slightly reduced-price level as compared to last week level. Buyers are still forecasting bearish sentiments in coming weeks and therefore booking only their urgent requirements.
Major weavers booked till early~mid May in narrow width and also covered their wider width looms till end May’21 and offering onward deliveries respectively.
Weavers are still facing slight resistance in getting poly/cotton yarn offers from their spinners due to rising trend of polyester fiber.
For coming weeks, we expect the local fabric market to carry same trend however not foreseeing any sharp downward trend therefore suggest not to hold buying.
Local fabric prices of regular items are as follows:
| Construction | Price US$/YD Ex-Mill |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.50 – 1.52 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.64 – 1.66 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.24 – 1.26 |
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Export fabric far eastern markers remained slow due to uncertainty in international prices hence customers were monitoring the market for right time to place orders. Limited inquires were exchanged during the week to check the prices however no bulk order was witnessed. Although NYCF closed almost on same level of previous week but fabric prices remained firm without change during the week due to good orders in hand and further expecting good demand in days to come.
Currently good suppliers are booked till mid of May and offering end May onward deliveries whereas average suppliers are booked till end of April and offering Mid May onward deliveries. European customers have exchanged too much of inquiries during the week which was mainly for price checking only and no remarkable business was observed.
Suppliers have the opinion that customers from Germany, Italy, Spain and Africa will start placing orders soon as they cannot wait for long. Wider width prices remained stable and firm due to stable yarn prices in domestic market.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports:
| Construction | Price US$/YD CNF Far East |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.52 – 1.54 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.65 – 1.67 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.26 – 1.28 |
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Bedding and Towel’s marketing is normalized in terms of order placements but the firmness received in prices has been negatively impacted due to Pakistani Rupee strengthening against the dollar. This is resulting in future placements looking bleak.
With the import of flannel fabric from CIS states has resulted in cashing the flannel shortfall. Whereas cotton shortfall has kept the prices up, and the rising crude prices has led the increase in the polyester fiber. This has resulted an overall impact of +7 to 8% in price hike of the finished product.
Order lead time for new placements are stretching from 75 to 80 working days, whereas for repeat the lead time is 40 to 45 working days.
GARMENTS
Garment manufacturers are finding it difficult to meet customers’ target prices due to increased prices of raw material as they have to reduce margins. Yarn prices have increased by 15-20% during last two months. Shortage of cotton supply overall is not supporting the yarn prices come down despite the fact of New York Cotton Futures showed a downward trend during last week.
Polyester Stapple Fiber’s price is also firm. In last six months, dollar has also depreciated against Pak Rupees by 5.58% from 166.5 to 157.2 while exporters previously had negotiated and finalized their export orders at dollar rate of PKR 166.5. All these factors are not supporting the final finished product’s price come down at the moment. On average factories have space to offer deliveries from July 2021 onward.
GOING FORWARD
In the local cotton market, slow business activity was seen due to the extra ordinary changes in prices internationally, buyers were confused on market sentiment. It seems that market will remain uncertain in coming days.
In Local Yarn there is reasonable foresee ability of further rise in PSF prices and slight increase in the Cotton prices based on NYCF.
In Local Fabric weavers are firm in their asking but ready to negotiate against any reasonable bid.
In Export Yarn, the market remained under slow business activity due to expectations of correction in prices. suppliers remained under flexible tone and some deals were matured where customer achieved their desired levels.
In Export Fabric, wider width suppliers are booked till end of June and offering July onward deliveries. Limited deliveries are available during June.
Dollar value will be the main driving force for the upcoming order placements and competitiveness of bedding and towel articles.
Prices have been firm for the garments from Pakistan due to hike in raw material prices and shortage of cotton overall. At the same time increased demand and import volumes from US and UK market it is likely that order placement with Pakistani factories will also increase in the time to come.
