PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
Last week in the local cotton market, buyers and spinning mills were on thoughtful buying and didn’t show much interest due to the rising trend in prices. On the other hand, ginners were also reluctant to sell in expectation of more profit margins. Due to that, moderate business activity was observed.
In the local cotton market prices increased around 800~900 per Maund followed by NYCF prices trend which had surged by 16% approx from the previous week, China cotton also showed the upward trend in the week as well. KCA authority increased the rate Rs. 800 from 13300 to 14100 per maund. In the same way, the rate of good quality of cotton reached Rs. 14,500 per maund which is the highest in 11 years.
The rate of cotton in the international market is more than the local cotton market. Moreover, the rate of the dollar after increasing reached in between Rs 170 to Rs 172 Pak rupees due to which the import of cotton is expensive. On the other hand, the container and shipment charges have increased too much and there is an unprecedented delay in delivery due to which textile mills are facing a financial crunch. The rate of cotton has increased and it is difficult to sell yarn at this price. So, many textile mills and ginners faced severe financial crunch and many textile mills and ginners were bankrupted but many fortunate ginners and textile mills earn a lot of profit.
The rate of cotton in New York Cotton crossed one dollar per pound and reached at one dollar seven cents which are highest after the season of 2011. After that, due to profit-taking, the market closed at one dollar four cents. In 2011-12 China was the biggest buyer at that time New York Cotton reached the highest level in the history. According to USDA weekly export report, more than five Lac seventy-one thousand bales were exported which was 65 percent more as compared to last week. This time too China was the biggest importer with more than four Lac eighteen thousand bales.
As per information, the trade conflict between China and America has been settled after that China will import more cotton from America. The bullish trend remained continued in Brazil, Central Asian states, Argentina, and China. In India, it is expected that unprecedented rains may damage cotton crops in Gujarat due to which a bullish trend prevails in the Indian cotton market.
According to World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, this year cotton production in the world will be less than the demand due to which a bullish trend will prevail in the market.
According to a fortnightly report of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) for the cotton season 2021-22 released in October, Total arrival figures stood at 3.8 million or 38,46,463bales with the increase of 101% increase from last year arrival till October.
The price of cotton in Sindh was between Rs 13,200 to Rs 14,300 per maund. The price of Phutti in Sindh was between Rs 5200 to Rs 6100 per 40 kg. The price of cotton in Punjab was between Rs 13,800 to Rs 14,500 per maund. The price of Phutti in Punjab was between Rs 5500 to 6400 per 40 kgs. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 0.96~1.03 Lbs. (13,200~14,500/ maund).
| Opening Of the Week | Closing Of the Week | Change | |
| Lowest | 93.00 | 96.00 | 3.00 |
| Highest | 101.00 | 103.00 | 2.00 |
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 75.45 with a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
In this week, crude oil prices showed an upward trend and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, the Crude Oil prices closed at USD 75.88 with an increase of USD 0.43 cents as of the opening figure of the week.
| Opening of Week | Closing Of Week | Change | |
| Price | 75.45 | 75.88 | 0.43 |
EXCHANGE RATE
In last week values of the Pak rupee depreciated against the US Dollar’s, other major currencies showed mixed trends in both Interbank and open markets.
At the end of week, Euro closed on a negative note with figure of 1.16 and British Pound closed on negative note with figure 1.36 against USD.
| Selling | Buying | |
| LC Sight | 170.48 | 170.43 |
| LC 120 Days | 169.36 | 169.31 |
| Open Market | 172.81 | 168.89 |
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with higher levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed an upward trend in this week too, hence slightly dropped on the last session but closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, DEC 2021 closed at 104.53 with an increase of 648 points.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2022 closed at 101.44 with upward of 462 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 100.44 with a rose of 465 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 102.65 with a higher level of the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week’s Index, “A” showed an upward trend this week and closed on the higher side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 112.15 with an increase of 950 points.
| Opening of the Week | Closing of the Week | Change | |
| Index A | 102.65 | 112.15 | 9.50 |
| Index B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
Local yarn market remained uncertain due to long jump in NYCF and followed by domestic cotton. Every seller increased prices in asking but very limited and urgent required yarn was booked by weavers. Everyone was is waiting to settle the market before taking buying decision.
PSF prices was Increased by Rs.3/kg by IFL in domestic market dated 27th September 2021. PTA, MEG prices was increased in international market and crude oil jumped highest level for the year. For next week, prices are expected to further increase about Rs.3~4/kg.
Faisalabad trading market was dull and limited activity was seen. Cash shortage was the main reason for slow trading activity. Fine counts were also slow in demand and limited sale of PV/Viscose reported.
Following are current asking prices of yarn in local market based on ex-mill terms:
| Count | Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS | Price US$/Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 2465 – 2678 | 580 – 630 |
| 20/1 CD | 2614 – 2869 | 615 – 675 |
| 30/1 CD | 2932 – 3145 | 690 – 740 |
| 20/1 CM | 3102 – 3188 | 730 – 750 |
| 30/1 PC 52:48 | 2295 – 2422 | 540 – 570 |
| 40/1 CM | 3782 – 3889 | 890 – 915 |
| 60/1 CM | 5100 – 5525 | 1200 – 1300 |
| 80/1 CM | 6779 – 6928 | 1595 – 1630 |
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market showed good activity during the week. Customers floated handsome numbers of inquiries against which order materialization was also witnessed. Suppliers kept on increasing their prices in line with cotton prices.
There has been handsome demand from the customer side and they wanted to book orders. However, due to the limited validity of prices, suppliers didn’t confirm orders and withdraw offers every single day. This was the major hurdle in business confirmations.
Customers have already shown an increase in their bids to place the orders but suppliers were under the bullish sentiment. It has been observed that NYCF has shown an increase of 16% in the last 2 weeks which is abnormally high.
Suppliers are not clear whether to sell or not and they kept on following the cotton prices. If we see overall market conditions, demand is good and customers have also increased their bids 3-5% but suppliers are in bullish sentiment which was the major reason for limited business activity.
Chinese customers showed good demand and floated a handsome number of inquiries. However, limited orders were placed only where the supplier took position and matched the customer’s desired levels.
European customers were active and floated a good number of inquiries. Reasonable quantity orders were also placed by customers as they increased their buying prices to the level of 3-5%.
| Count | USD / Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 705 – 710 |
| 20/1 CD | 735 – 740 |
| 20/1 CM | 900 – 905 |
| 16/1 CM | 845 – 850 |
| 20/2 CD | 780 – 785 |
| 24/2 CD | 840 – 845 |
| 10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING | 575 – 590 |
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In the current week under review, the local fabric market remained standstill & foggy because yarn and cotton prices remained bullish and kept on rising on daily basis. Therefore buyers remained clueless throughout the week to book in hand orders for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Spinners remained reluctant to offer yarn prices with some validity so weavers were unable to offer fabric prices against limited inquiries floated by local finishers in the market. Resultantly local fabric market remained silent throughout the week whereas fabric prices skyrocketed by approx.: 5%~6% in the current week in lieu of New York cotton’s future trend.
Major weavers are booked till early~mid-December for narrow width and also covered their wider width looms till 3rd week of December ~ end December’21 and offering onward deliveries.
Local fabric prices of regular items are as follows:
| Construction | Price US$/YD Ex Mill |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.58 – 1.60 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.70 – 1.72 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.30 – 1.32 |
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
The whole week went in confusion as the NYCF kept on rising every day hence the suppliers could not offer fabric prices against the inquiries. Far Eastern customers exchanged limited inquiries but no offer was made due to the unstable market situation. The asking prices increased about 8~10% during the week which is the highest increase in a week time. Suppliers have the booking till the end of Nov and offering End Dec deliveries nowadays.
Suppliers are still facing problems to ship their ready goods due to a shortage of vessels as well as space problems on available vessels.
European customers have exchanged a good number of inquiries but suppliers did not offer fabric prices as they were unable to get yarn prices due to a very uncertain market situation. Wider width suppliers are booked till Dec and offering Jan onward deliveries.
Following were the closing fabric rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports:
| Construction | Price US$/YD CNF Far East |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.54 – 1.56 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.70 – 1.72 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.28 – 1.30 |
BED LINEN & TOWELS
The home Textiles market situation is not so promising due to the recent increase in NYC, inquiries flow is slow. It is expected that inquiry flow will increase gradually in the coming weeks once the price will settle as customers have to purchase goods for new seasons.
Big retailers have already booked their orders for the next 1-2 seasons and now they will start procurement for the summer season. All big manufacturers are mostly booked for the next 2-3 months with 70-80% of their capacities.
The towel sector is working on its maximum capacity and lead times are 120-150 days. NY market week will commence from 4-7 Oct so there will be chances of new order placements during coming weeks.
Moreover, most manufacturers are hesitant to quote on a CNF basis due to freight charges constantly increasing. The CNF is basis prices are subject to confirmation. Any increase in charges at the time of dispatch is being transferred to the customer.
GARMENTS
Growing volumes of garment orders from customers have increased employment opportunities for the garment industry of Pakistan. Globally demand for apparel has been observed to be increased especially US import data showed a steep upward trend. Pakistani factories have grabbed a healthy number of orders in the recent past from the US, EU, and UK markets after a little bit of negotiation. Overall price sentiments have been stiff due to a firm trend in raw material prices. Current lead times with factories are ranging from ninety to one hundred and twenty days.
GOING FORWARD
About the future market, it is expected that local yarn prices will be according to local cotton prices and international trend of NYCF, raw material factors will determine the yarn price accordingly. Further prices trend will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
Moderate business activity was seen in the Local cotton market due to the extraordinary rise in prices, buyers were expecting that prices may drop because of bullish and baseless rise. On the other hand, reports showing that worldwide cotton production is lower than demand. So overall, the market is confused and buyers were in wait and watch mode. In fact, sentiments are showing that the Local cotton market may remain firm in the coming days due to the shortage of cotton & import is not viable due to extra hikes in prices worldwide.
Going forward we expect that the local fabric market may remain bullish and full of surprises for the coming weeks.
The export yarn market remained under the bullish sentiment. Cotton prices showed upward sentiment and yarn prices followed the upward tone accordingly. It is expected that the market will remain firm in days to come.
Export fabric market sentiments remained confused during the week as no major placement was seen. Suppliers have good inquiries in hand but are unable to offer prices due to an unstable market situation. It is expected that fabric prices will remain upward.
A healthy wave is ahead for the Pakistan garment industry as order influx has been found to be increased. Most of the factories have also increased and upgraded their capacities to cater to customers’ demands.
The manufacturers are expecting a good flow of inquiries in the home textile sector for the winter/summer season. In the near future things look very complicated and there will be some clarity in the market in the upcoming week for the cotton and yarn prices.
