Market Report -Pakistan 12th October 2021

PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET

Last week in the local cotton market, buyers and spinning mills were remained busy in buying due to the rising trend internationally, although buyers were confused in fear of an upward trend, they kept in the market. Extraordinary variation was seen in the local market under the influence of New York Cotton where the fluctuation of 5-6 American cents per pound was witnessed.

In the local cotton market prices increased around 800~900 per maund followed by the NYCF trend which had surged from the previous week, China cotton also showed an upward trend in last week as well. KCA authority increased the rate Rs. 700 from 13900 to 14600 per maund. In the same way, the rate of good quality of cotton reached Rs15,000 per maund.

The bullish trend was seen in the Rate of New York Cotton at the start of the week. On Tuesday the of New York Cotton reached at the highest level of one dollar fourteen American cents under the influence of which the rate of cotton in the local cotton market also witnessed an increasing trend.

In international cotton markets especially after fluctuation in the Rate of New York Cotton overall a bullish trend prevails in the market. The rate of cotton reached the highest level of 115.92 American cents moreover after decreasing it was 110 American cents.

On Thursday weekly USDA export report shows a decline of 57% in exports as compared to last week. This week China was the biggest importer with one Lac seventeen four thousand bales; although, there were long holidays in China from October 1 due to festival. It is possible that exports may decrease in the next report because of low buying by China. A bullish trend prevails in international cotton-producing countries under the influence of the unprecedented increase in the rate of cotton in the New York Cotton Market. The bullish trend was witnessed in China, India, Central Asian States, Africa, Argentina, and Brazil.

According to the meeting, keeping in view the situation of cotton, the total cotton production in the country for the year 2021-22 has been estimated at 9.74 million bales. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan are expected to produce 434,000 bales. Favorable weather conditions and good cotton prices are amongst the reasons for the increase in cotton production.

The price of cotton in Sindh was between Rs 13,500 to Rs 14,800 per maund. The price of Phutti in Sindh was between Rs 5200 to Rs 6200 per 40 kg. The price of cotton in Punjab was between Rs 13,800 to Rs 15,000 per maund. The price of Phutti in Punjab was between Rs 5500 to 6400 per 40 kgs. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 0.96~1.07 Lbs. (13,500~15,000/ maund).

  Opening Of The Week Closing Off the Week Change
Lowest 96.00 99.00 3.00
Highest 101.00 107.00 6.00

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil prices opened at USD 77.62 with a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.

In this week, crude oil prices showed a mixed trend and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, the Crude Oil prices closed at USD 79.35 with an increase of USD 1.73 cents as of the opening figure of the week.

  Opening of Week Closing Of Week Change
Price 77.62 79.35 1.73

EXCHANGE RATE

In last week values of the Pak rupee depreciated against the US Dollar’s, other major currencies showed mixed trends in both Interbank and open markets.

At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.16 and British Pound closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.36 against USD.

  Selling Buying
LC Sight 170.83 170.78
LC 120 Days 169.51 169.46
Open Market 173.06 169.14

NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE

New York Cotton futures opened with higher levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.

NYCF showed an upward trend in this week too, hence dropped on the last session but closed on the positive side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, DEC 2021 closed at 110.60 with an increase of 567 points.

On the last day of the week, MAR 2022 closed at 107.91 with upward of 532 points.

On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 106.77 with a rose of 525 points.

LIVER POOL INDICES

Liverpool Index A was opened at 115.65 with a higher level of the previous week’s closing figure.

In this week’s Index, “A” dropped in the next session, later showed an upward trend till closing, and closed on the higher side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 119.50 with an increase of 385 points.

  Opening of the Week Closing of the Week Change
Index A 115.65 119.50 3.85
Index B 0.00 0.00 0.00

PAKISTAN YARN MARKET

The local yarn market remained firm after following the historically high price of the last decade in NYCF. Suppliers were forced to buy high prices cotton in the domestic market. Yarn prices were remained firm and only some buyers booked yarn against their sold orders. No one was ready to get a position on these rates due to uncertainty.

PSF prices were Increased by Rs.5/kg by IFL in the domestic market dated 4th Oct 2021. PTA, MEG prices were increased in the international market and crude oil jumped to the highest level for the year. For next week, prices are expected to increased Rs.3~4/kg.

Faisalabad trading market was dull and limited activity was seen. Cash shortage was the main reason for slow trading activity. Fine counts were also slow in demand and limited sales of PV/Viscose was reported.

Following are current asking prices of yarn in the local market based on ex-mill terms:

Count Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS Price US$/Bale
16/1 CD 2678 – 2784 630 – 655
20/1 CD 2784 – 2954 655 – 695
30/1 CD 3039 – 3251 715 – 765
20/1 CM 3145 – 3315 740 – 780
30/1 PC 52:48 2359 – 2465 555 – 580
40/1 CM 3889 – 3995 915 – 940
60/1 CM 5249 – 5568 1235 – 1310
80/1 CM 6821 – 6991 1605 – 1645

EXPORT YARN MARKET

Export yarn market showed normal business activity as the market kept on rising every single day due to the upward trend of cotton prices.
It has been witnessed that cotton prices showed bullish sentiment the whole week and kept on rising to the maximum extend. Cotton prices have touched the decade-high by crossing USD 1.00/lbs and still gaining every day.

Under the circumstances, prices from suppliers also followed cotton prices as local cotton in Pakistan also touched an all-time high of Rs 15000/Maund i.e USD1.07/lbs. this is the maximum level touched for Pakistan cotton and if international cotton prices continue to incline, prices of yarn will follow the same.

At the same time, customers from different regions have followed this bullish sentiment and orders have been placed with the increase in price by 5-7% within last week. Demand is still there and it is expected that the market will follow the same sentiment and handsome quantities order will be confirmed.

Chinese customers were active despite holidays and good quantities order confirmed. Customers want to place more orders and it is expected that customers will increase the price more and orders will be materialized.

European customers remained active as well. good numbers of inquiries were floated against which reasonable orders were confirmed. We might see another buying spree in days to come.

Count USD / Bale
16/1 CD 710 – 715
20/1 CD 740 – 745
20/1 CM 905 – 910
16/1 CM 850 – 855
20/2 CD 785 – 790
24/2 CD 845 – 850
10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING 610 – 625

PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET

In the current week under review, the local fabric market slowed down considerably and limited activity was reported for both narrow and wider width fabrics owing to consistent rise in prices and also weavers were unable to offer throughout the week.

Buyers floated inquiries in limited numbers as local finishers got confused due to the unprecedented rise in cotton & yarn prices. However, towards the end of the week, correction in the New York cotton market provided a sigh of relief and buyers tried to book their urgent requirements but as spinners were reluctant to offer bulk yarn so limited activity was reported in the market.

Weavers booked limited orders after tough negotiations at the increased price level and covered their narrow width looms till mid-December’21~ 3rd week December’21 whereas wider width looms are booked till end December’21 /early January’22 and offering onward deliveries.

Local fabric prices of regular items are as follows:

Construction Price US$/YD Ex Mill
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN 1.59 – 1.61
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1 1.71 – 1.73
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN 1.31 – 1.33

EXPORT FABRIC MARKET

The export fabric market remained still stand during the week. There were limited inquiries from Far Eastern customers but suppliers were unable to offer fabric prices due to continuous rise in yarn prices. Basically, yarn suppliers were holding their yarn offers due to un-clear market sentiment.

The asking price increased about 10~12% during the last two weeks. Currently, good suppliers are booked till mid of Dec and offering end-Dec onward deliveries. Suppliers have a good sales position so far so they are not under sales pressure.

European customers have exchanged a good number of inquiries during the week both in 100% cotton and blended fabric.
Suppliers could offer for a limited number of inquiries mainly in 100% cotton in fine counts only but they could not offer blended fabric during the last two weeks as they have not blended yarn offers in hand.

PC, CVC yarn suppliers were holding their offers for some time and we may hope to get offers from mid of next week if the market sentiments stop/settled anywhere. Wider width suppliers have booking till Dec and offering Jan onward deliveries.

Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports:

Construction Price US$/YD CNF Far East
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN 1.58 – 1.60
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1 1.74 – 1.76
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN 1.30 – 1.32

BED LINEN & TOWELS

The current landscape for Home Textiles has witnessed some unusual trends due to anomalies in NYCF. The steep rise in New York cotton has caused widespread uncertainty which has resulted in a drop in inquiries flow. The foresight towards betterment can be predicted once the prices are stable followed by seasonal buying.

Mass retailers had already booked their orders for next season. However, procurement for the summer season is still expected. A considerable amount of bookings are already in hands of large-scale manufacturers, which exceeds up to 70-80% of their capacities for the next 3 months.

The towel sector has proven to be a cash cow for this year where manufacturers are running on 100% capacity followed by 120-150 days lead-time; which is higher than the usual market norms.

The New York market week has also been a lucrative opportunity for buyers and suppliers to book new orders.

GARMENTS

Pakistan’s garment industry has been showing incredible growth in around last months. Factories are delivering SS22 bulk orders and buyers are placing their developments for 2022 and as well as factories has started developments for AW22 season. Overall factories are performing in their full swing and they are booked till Feb-2022.

Globally US has been on top from buying perspective as the demand has been increased day by day. Lead time for the initial orders were 90 days, however, for AW22 orders factories have increased lead time from 90 to 120 or 130 days due to excessive bookings.

GLOBAL NEWS

1- “IMF has indicated about Hyper Inflation in the coming months with global GDP losses expected to reach USD 5.3 trillion in the next 5 years. With current ongoing issues of China power crises and neighboring economies unable to pick up post-COVID, the output of goods will slow down which will drive inflation.” ~ Sourcing Journal

2. “Swedish giants H&M and Ikea have opened an inquiry in post-consumer wool, cotton and polyester products and have found noncompliance of recycled legacy hazardous materials not meeting the AFIRM-RSL2 limits. A movement is expected to begin with high compliance of recycled materials across the suppliers around the world. This can become the next GOTS equivalent major investigation movement.” ~ Fiber2Fashion

3. “Bangladesh garment exports rise 11.48% in July~September 2021 to USD 9.059 Billion.” ~ Sourcing Journal

4. “Apparel & Footwear titans are centralizing suppliers across the world to create more sustainable investments in the supply chain as there has been an explosive growth in the industry from USD 250 billion back in 2001 to USD 684 billion in 2019.” ~ Home Textiles Today

GOING FORWARD

About the future market, it is expected that local yarn prices will be according to local cotton prices and international trend of NYCF, raw material factors will determine the yarn price accordingly. Further prices trend will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.

Improved business activity was seen in the Local cotton market due to the fear of a further rise in international price, which may not be variable more to import of cotton. Hence, the worldwide cotton scenario is totally changed and market players are unable to understand the market situation. But it seems that local buyers will keep buying as they are not expecting that international prices will drop in the coming days.

Going forward we expect that the local fabric market may remain volatile for the coming weeks.

The overall market remained bullish with handsome business activity in export yarn. Demand is still there and good business activity is expected in days to come. Cotton prices are on the rise and yarn suppliers will follow cotton prices respectively.

For Export fabric, It is expected that yarn prices will remain upward thus suppliers will offer for limited quantities only of fabric. No major business activity was seen during the week due to the unstable market situation.

For garments, A great caveat to the ease of supply chain is the underlying freight problem. The majority of suppliers are hesitant to quote on a CNF basis (subject to confirmation in case of further increase). The supply chain has been disrupted greatly by the vessel shortage crisis. Further chances of an increase in air freight is a testimony to the fact that the shipping-line crisis has caused an immense and adverse effect to the ease of supply chain businesses. We expect 9 million cotton bales arrive this season. This factor will add further order influx coming to the Pakistan garment industry as prices might be competitive depending upon raw material prices and actual cotton arrival status.

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