PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
Last week in the local cotton market, a bullish trend of activity was observed. Buyers and spinners were busy buying, despite higher prices they took interest in fear that local market prices may rise further. Due to the rising trend of international cotton prices, imports wouldn’t be feasible so far.
In the local cotton market prices showed an upward trend and rose around 600~700 Pk per maund. KCA authority also increased the rate Rs. 400 from 14500 to 14900 per maund. In the same way, the rate of good quality of cotton reached Rs 15,500 per maund which was highest in the season while the rate of good quality Phutti was reached at Rs 7000 per 40 kg while in Baluchistan it reached at Rs 7400 per 40 kg.
Mills were buying cotton locally because of high rates in the international cotton market as well as due to the high rates of dollar and shipment. Ginners were also interested in selling cotton because they don’t know at which time the market dipped because there is unprecedented fluctuation and uncertainty in the market.
This year cotton farmers are getting satisfactory rates of cotton that’s why taking advantage of the high rates they are interested in selling Putti. Most of the ginners are oversold because they can face loss if they retain Phutti at a time when rates are so high.
Trading volume is good and almost 80 to 90 lac are reaching ginning factories. Experts are of the view that Phutti will reach ginning factories with this pace in the coming 20 to 25 days. This year according to the government estimates 93 lac bales will be produced in the country while according to the estimates of the private sector 85 lac bales will be produced in the country. However, cotton production increased in the country as compared to last year. The reason behind increased production is favorable weather conditions. Although, this year the cultivated area is less due to increase in per acre yield it is expected that production will be increased.
According to USDA weekly export report, more than 300,000 bales, 91,000 were exported which was 167 percent more as compared to last week. This time too China was on number one with 272,000 bales while Turkey was on number second with importing more than 76,000 bales. This time Pakistan had not signed an import agreement. In this way, more than 117,000 bales were sold which was 23 percent more as compared to last week.
This week, New York Cotton decreased despite an increase in export and sales. An increasing trend was witnessed in the rate of cotton in Brazil, Central Asian states, Africa and Australia but an unprecedented increase was recorded in the rate of cotton which was per candy (356 kg) which after continuously increasing the rate of Shankar reached at the highest level of Rs 61700.
The price of cotton in Sindh was in between Rs 14,200 to Rs 15,400 per maund. The price of Phutti in Sindh was between Rs 5300 to Rs 6300 per 40 kg. The price of cotton in Punjab was in between Rs 14,300 to Rs 15,500 per maund. The price of Phutti in Punjab was between Rs 6000 to 7000 per 40 kgs. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 0.99~1.08 Lbs. (14,200~15,400/ maund).
|Opening Of the Week||Closing Of the Week||Change|
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 82.44 with a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
In this week, crude oil prices showed an upward trend and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
On last day of the week, the Crude Oil prices closed at USD 83.76 with an increase of USD 1.32 cents as of the opening figure of the week.
|Opening of Week||Closing Of Week||Change|
In last week values of Pak rupee depreciated against the US Dollar’s, other major currencies showed mixed trend in both Interbank and open markets. At the end of the week, Euro closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.17 and British Pound also closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.38 against USD.
|LC 120 Days||173.42||173.37|
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with lower levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF rose in the next two consecutive days later dropped in the next session, hence recovered again on closing and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
Although prices made large moves every day of the past week, December futures trading was relatively constrained to the range from Tuesday’s low at 105.25 cents per pound to Thursday’s high at 111.35 cents. In fact, four of the last five sessions have had a daily range (the distance from highest price traded to lowest price traded) greater than 425 points.
On the last day of the week, DEC 2021 closed at 108.26 with an increase of 122 points.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2022 closed at 106.19 with upward of 124 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 105.17 with a rose of 110 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 116.20 with a higher level than the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week’s Index, “A” showed an upward trend this week and closed on the higher side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 119.85 with an increase of 365 points.
|Opening of the Week||Closing of the Week||Change|
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained firm in asking and average activity was made during last week. Suppliers were firm in their yarn prices due to the firm price of domestic cotton and NYCF. Coarse count good sale was made in export which extended their sale position. Fine counts import is now viable in large number so activity was seen in the domestic market.
PSF prices were Increased by Rs.5/kg by IFL in the domestic market dated 18th Oct 2021 and Rs.2/kg on 20th Oct 2021. PTA, MEG prices were firm in the international market and crude oil jumped to the highest level. For next week, prices are expected to increase further Rs.3~5/kg.
Faisalabad trading market was dull and limited activity was seen. Cash shortage was the main reason for slow trading activity from the last few months. Fine counts were also slow in demand and limited sales of PV/Viscose was reported.
Following are current asking prices of yarn in the local market based on ex-mill terms:
|Count||Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS||Price US$/Bale|
|16/1 CD||2695 – 2848||620 – 655|
|20/1 CD||2804 – 2978||645 – 685|
|30/1 CD||3065 – 3261||705 – 750|
|20/1 CM||3174 – 3326||730 – 765|
|30/1 PC 52:48||2435 – 2522||560 – 580|
|40/1 CM||3913 – 4021||900 – 925|
|60/1 CM||5391 – 5695||1240 – 1310|
|80/1 CM||6869 – 7065||1580 – 1625|
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market showed slow business activity as the market showed an upward trend due to the rising trend in cotton prices.
Overall cotton prices were on the rise which has made suppliers firm and stable and they kept on increasing their asking prices in line with cotton prices.
The supplier is comfortably booked and not showing any flexibility in asking their prices. they are only negotiating prices where they need to sell some specific counts. Other than that, they are quite firm in asking their prices and only selling where they get required prices.
Customers have been following prices in line with cotton prices and they have increased their buying prices as well. however, now they are not further increasing their prices and resisting offers from suppliers. That’s the reason that booking for limited quantities has been confirmed.
Cotton prices both in the international and domestic markets remained firm. Spinners are actively buying cotton at any price just to keep themselves covered.
As per the ongoing situation, it is expected that cotton and yarn prices for the current season 2021-2022 will remain firm and stable with minor fluctuation within the current range.
Chinese customers were quite slow in terms of orders confirmations. The major reason is high asking prices from spinners as well as forward deliveries from many suppliers.
European customers also floated good numbers of inquiries against which orders materialization was quite slow. Customers remained on the sideline after getting prices as they are not able to digest such a sharp increase.
|Count||USD / Bale|
|16/1 CD||680 – 690|
|20/1 CD||690 – 700|
|20/1 CM||770 – 780|
|16/1 CM||760 – 770|
|20/2 CD||735 – 745|
|24/2 CD||800 – 810|
|10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING||610 – 625|
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In the current week under review the local fabric remained slightly slow as compared to last week for both narrow and wider width fabrics owing to the volatility of market sentiments and also fabric prices were continuously ticking upward.
Buyers floated inquiries in the market but could not materialize their required orders due to the unavailability of required deliveries, especially for stretch yarn counts.
Spinners covered to their maximum capacities for the next two months. Further weavers are also booked till 3rd week December ~ End December’21 for narrow width looms and covered their wider width looms till Mid-January ~ End January’22 and offering onward deliveries.
|Construction||Price US$/YD Ex Mill|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.58 – 1.60|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.68 – 1.70|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.29 – 1.31|
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Export fabric market improved as compared to last few weeks. Chinese customers have started placing orders for their urgent needs. Korean customers are still not buying as they feel current prices are much higher than their re-selling prices. Few inquiries were received from Vietnam but no buying was witnessed. Other markets like Japan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh remained slow.
Asking prices remained stable during the week. Currently, good suppliers are booked till the end of Dec and offering mid-Jan ~ end Jan onward deliveries whereas average suppliers are still offering some quantities from the end of Dec onward.
European and USA markets were active during the week. Suppliers have received good orders from European and USA markets both in wider and narrow width fabric.
Wider width suppliers are booked till mid of Jan and offering end Jan ~ early Feb onward deliveries.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern markets:
|Construction||Price US$/YD CNF Far East|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.60 – 1.62|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.76 – 1.78|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.32 – 1.34|
BED LINEN & TOWELS
In-Home Textiles market situation is same as last week, inquiries flow is slow. It is expected that inquiry flow will increase gradually in the coming weeks as European customers are waiting for prices to settle. US customers have placed orders in a Market week and they are also looking to place orders in comings days.
All big manufacturers are mostly booked for the next 2-3 months with 70-80% of their capacities.
The towel sector is working on its maximum capacity and lead times are 120-150 days. Moreover, most manufacturers are hesitant to quote on a CNF basis due to freight charges constantly increasing. The CNF basis prices are subject to confirmation. Any increase in charges at the time of dispatch is being transferred to the customer.
The Garment Industry of Pakistan has shown substantial improvement in recent months and opportunities are there with great orders. We have been observed that prices are firm and found an unconditional market situation due to which customer is in wait and see the state. The factories are booked till next year Jan-Feb 2022 and they are offering onward deliveries. As prices are going upward of all the raw materials due to which factories are asking for the upcharge whereas the customer is hesitating to accept the higher prices. However, new developments are also on going which shows that productive and healthy activity. Employment ratio also increased as factories are in need of workforce to execute the orders in hand and they also foresee more orders coming in future.
About the future market, it is expected that local yarn prices will be according to local cotton prices and international trend of NYCF, raw material factors will determine the yarn price accordingly. Further prices trend will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
for Local cotton market, all the sentiments are on the higher side, drop-in prices is not being expected in the local market due to the fewer chances of importing cotton. So, buyers are buying cotton on all levels. International cotton prices are still uncertain but near far there is no chance that prices will drop drastically, hence NYCF may set in between levels in the coming days.
We may forecast firm and rising market sentiments for coming weeks for local fabric due to the unprecedented volatility of the cotton market.
Overall export yarn market remained firm and stable with an upward tone. Cotton prices were bullish which put a notable impact on yarn prices. hence, customers kept on resisting such high prices thus very limited deals were matured where customers got their desired levels.
Export fabric activity remained good especially for European and USA market during the week and expected to remain good in coming days as well. Prices may remain firm due to firm raw material prices.
Home textile manufacturers are expecting a good flow of inquiries for the upcoming season. In reasonable foresight, a handsome flow of orders is expected. However, the customer will have to absorb the upcharge if freight and raw material price trends do not achieve stability.
Garment factories in Pakistan are fully booked with a lead time of ninety to a hundred and twenty days as they have a reasonable number of orders in hand. Garment exporters also foresee more orders coming in response to developments done for SS22 and FW22 seasons.