PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week in the local cotton market, dullness prevailed in business activity, therefore prices are slightly dropped. The international downward trend in prices also impacts the local market. However, ginners are firm and not dropping prices due to less availability of cotton with them.
However, the stock of cotton is decreasing with the ginners. The stock of one international organization is also decreasing. Moreover, the demand for cotton is also increasing and there is a parity issue between the rate of cotton and cotton yarn. Around eighty lac bales will be imported. So far agreements for the import of fifty lac bales have already been signed.
In the local cotton market slightly dropped was seen in prices due to less business activity. Internationally prices are also dropping. KCA also dropped rs.100 and reached a level of Rs.20100 per maund. The local cotton market prices were between Rs 19500 ~20,700 per maund.
The effects of Covid-19 are decreasing now but the tension between Russia and Ukraine is increasing market concerns. Moreover, there is likely to be political uncertainty in the country in the coming days. The cost of production is increasing due to inflation and the increase in power prices.
The rate of Future Trading of New York Cotton after decreasing reached 122 American cents. According to the weekly sales and export reports of USDA, more than one lac fifty-eight thousand bales were sold which is fourteen percent less as compared to the sale of last week.
China was on the top number after buying forty-seven thousand and eight hundred bales from the USA. Pakistan was on number two with twenty-three thousand and nine hundred bales and Vietnam was in third place with twenty-three thousand and eight hundred bales. The rates of cotton in Brazil, Central Asia, and Africa remained stable while the rates of cotton in India overall remained stable.
Cotton arrival in Pakistan increased by 32.4% year on year, showed the latest fortnightly data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA). As per the report, total cotton arrivals surged to 7.434 million bales as of February 15, 2021, compared to 5.616 million bales in the same period last year, showing a difference of 1.82 million bales.
The price of cotton was between Rs 19,500 to Rs 20,00 per maund while Phutti is almost finished. The price of cotton in Punjab was between Rs 19,700 to Rs 20,700 per maund.
The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 1.35~1.43 Lbs. (19,500~20,700/ maund).
| Opening Of The Week | Closing Off the Week | Change | |
| Lowest | 131.00 | 131.00 | 0.00 |
| Highest | 144.00 | 144.00 | 0.00 |
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 95.46 on a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
In this week, crude oil showed a downward trend, hence slightly revered in mid of week but the overall trend was on the lower side and closed on the lower side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, the Crude Oil price closed at USD 91.07 with a decrease of USD 4.39 as of the opening figure of the week.
| Opening of Week | Closing Of Week | Change | |
| Price | 95.46 | 91.07 | -4.39 |
EXCHANGE RATE
Last week values of the Pak rupee slightly depreciated against the US Dollar, other major currencies showed mixed trends in both Interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.14 and the British Pound also closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.36 against the USD.
| Selling | Buying | |
| LC Sight | 175.29 | 175.24 |
| LC 120 Days | 174.45 | 174.40 |
| Open Market | 177.61 | 173.60 |
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with striking lower levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed a moderate trend with both side fluctuations in a whole week, by the end of the week closed on the slightly positive side.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2022 closed at 122.99 with upward of 6 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 121.16 with a rose of 55 points.
On the last day of the week, JUL 2022 closed at 118.13 with an increase of 24 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 139.70 with a lower level than the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week’s Index, “A” showed a downward trend and closed lower by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 135.70 with a decrease of 400 points.
| Opening of the Week | Closing of the Week | Change | |
| Index A | 139.70 | 135.70 | -4.00 |
| Index B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained stable in asking prices. Suppliers were interested in selling the yarn whereas buyers are in observing situation right now thus limited activity was done. The raw cotton prices in the Global market followed by NYCF. On the other hand, weavers were enforced to buy on these stages as no chance to drop market in the shortcoming period and they need to acquire yarn to feed their looms.
PSF prices were amplified by Rs.3/kg by IFL in the domestic market dated 14th Feb 2022. PTA, MEG prices were firm in the international market and crude oil prices also remained unchanging by end of this week. For next week, prices are projected to remain strong.
Faisalabad trading market was again slow as limited activity was seen. Traders were in selling their stocks and loom owners were in a tough position in yarn buying due to a surge in electricity and others overheads. Fine counts demand was the normal and cautious sale of PV/Viscose reported instead of increased raw fiber prices.
Followings are recent querying prices of yarn in local market based on ex mills:
| Count | Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS | Price US$/Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 3046 – 3177 | 695 – 725 |
| 20/1 CD | 3089 – 3287 | 705 – 750 |
| 30/1 CD | 3418 – 3572 | 780 – 815 |
| 20/1 CM | 3659 – 3769 | 835 – 860 |
| 30/1 PC 52:48 | 2586 – 2980 | 590 – 680 |
| 40/1 CM | 4295 – 4382 | 980 – 1000 |
| 60/1 CM | 5938 – 6091 | 1355 – 1390 |
| 80/1 CM | 8480 – 8764 | 1935 – 2000 |
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market remained under mixed sentiments. Customers have floated good numbers of inquiries against which suppliers offered prices with firm and stable notes. However, there has been a flexible tone from suppliers this week as they are showing interest in exports.
The major reason is that there is good demand from customers but they are not confirming orders just to avoid any wrong decision on higher prices. Hence, they are watching the market very closely and will close orders with the negotiation of prices. Customers floated inquiries and after getting offers, they are bidding almost 5-8% lower than the asking prices. Earlier this week, suppliers were not willing to drop prices but after a decline in US cotton and overall tension due to Russia/Ukraine, suppliers are showing interest to sell with flexibility.
It is expected that export yarn business activity will resume as suppliers are now showing interest in export due to slow business activity in the local market as well as a serious financial crunch due to late payments. Deals are expected to be concluded with a drop of 3-5% depending on a supplier’s sales position. Chinese customers remained in the market and floated handsome numbers of inquiries. Customers have good demand and it is expected that business will be finalized in the coming week.
European customers were also active and floated decent numbers of inquiries. However, they are resisting high asking prices.
Conclusion: The export yarn market showed slow business activity despite the presence of good numbers of inquiries customers are resisting high asking prices. it is expected that orders will be closed next week after negotiations of 3-5% in prices.
| Count | USD / Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 700 – 710 |
| 20/1 CD | 710 – 720 |
| 20/1 CM | 790 – 800 |
| 16/1 CM | 780 – 790 |
| 20/2 CD | 755 – 765 |
| 24/2 CD | 820 – 830 |
| 10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING | 630 – 650 |
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In the current week under review, the local fabric market started on a dull note and closed with limited trading activity for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Limited business materialization was reported in the market as finishers shared limited inquiries owing to the perception that the market may ease down in the coming weeks and therefore they booked only urgent requirements after tough negotiations for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Buyers are still sharing bids 3-4% lower than the asking prices of weavers due to which weavers could not materialize available bulk inquiries. Currently, weavers are booked in narrow width looms till mid-April’22 whereas wider width looms are booked till the end of April ~ early May’22 and offer onward deliveries.
| Construction | Price US$/YD ExMill |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.68 – 1.70 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.85 – 1.87 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.37 – 1.39 |
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
It’s been more than two weeks that Far Eastern customers are not taking interest in fresh buying due to high asking prices by the suppliers. They still have old stock thus they are not hurried into new buying. Suppliers are keeping their asking prices stable due to stable raw material prices. They are chasing new orders but the market is not responding well.
Suppliers are booked till mid of April and offering end-April onward deliveries. Comparatively less number of inquiries were exchanged by the European and USA customers during the week. They are expecting a correction in prices thus they are waiting till the prices are down. Once the prices reached their Psychological level, they will hopefully make buying decisions. Wider width suppliers are booked till the end of April and offering mid-May ~ End-May onward deliveries.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports.
| Construction | Price US$/YD CNF Far East |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.66 – 1.68 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.82 – 1.84 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.36 – 1.38 |
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles inquiry flow was slow this week as customers are waiting for a decrease in prices. There is still around a 5-7% difference in customer targets and factories prices due to which orders placement volume is low. It is expected a decrease in prices for upcoming weeks due to low business volumes in hand with factories. Factories are interested to confirm the business and ready to meet realistic targets for the business, but the price is a big challenge and it is increasing every week.
The manufacturers are concerned due to low business in hand as factories are running at 50-60% capacities. There is also a financial crunch throughout the textile industry due to vessel congestion and the change of payment mode of factories.
GARMENTS
Pakistan’s garment industry has been showing absurd growth in around last few months. Factories are delivering AW22 bulk orders and buyers are placing their developments for 2023 as well as factories have started developments for the SS23 season. Overall factories are performing in full swing and they are booked till End April-22. Lead time for the initial orders was 90 days, however, for AW22 orders factories have increased lead time from 90 to 120 or 130 days due to excessive bookings.
However, recently it has been observed that orders are shifting towards different countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India. Especially these countries offer competitive prices to get as many deals as possible. This factor could hurt Pakistan’s garment business in the coming months.
We are expecting 9 million cotton bales in this season, this factor will also help us a lot of incoming orders with the fresh cotton with effective pricing.
GLOBAL NEWS
1. US online prices rose 2.7 percent year-over-year (YoY) and 1.1 percent month-over-month (MoM), marking the 20th consecutive month of YoY online inflation, as per the online inflation data by Adobe. In January 2022, 13 of the 18 categories tracked by the Adobe Digital Price Index saw YoY price increases, with apparel rising faster than any other category. ~ Fibre to Fashion~
2. Bangladesh and UAE establish direct shipping links between the two countries’ seaports and introduce direct cargo flights to maintain seamless and uninterrupted supply chains. This will improve cooperation in trade, commerce, investment, economic areas, enhanced air, and maritime connectivity. ~ Fibre to Fashion~
3. Target, Walmart, Home Goods, Floor & Décor, and home improvement stores see a boost in foot traffic. ~ Home Textiles Today~
4. New textile policy in Pakistan seeks to boost exports. While doing away from the existing mechanism for the provision of gas and electricity at subsidized fixed rates, the government has approved a new Textile Policy, envisaging doubling its exports target up to $42 billion over the next three years. ~The News ~
GOING FORWARD
About the future market, it is foreseen that local yarn prices will be conferring to local cotton prices and the international trend of NYCF, the raw material factor will regulate the yarn price accordingly. Further prices trend will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
Cotton trading was relatively quiet all week as prices eased marginally lower. The market has entered a price consolidation phase and is attempting to ease above the 10-day moving average. ICE cotton price objective for the old crop remains 130 cents and the new crop December continues to look at 107 cents with a possible target of 112 cents.
Local fabric is expected to remain range-bound for the coming weeks.
The slow business was witnessed for export fabric during the last couple of weeks due to high prices. Customers are expecting a correction in prices hence they are holding their buying for some time. The business activity may re-start once the market is settled down.
The manufacturers are concerned due to low business in hand as factories are running at 50-60% capacities. There is also a financial crunch throughout the textile industry due to vessel congestion and the change of payment mode of factories.
At the moment overall garment factories in Pakistan have covered their productions till End of April 22 on average and offering onward deliveries. Price points have observed a stiff sentiment as raw materials prices are not showing any soft trend.
