PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week in the local cotton market, a bearish trend was witnessed. Buyers were reluctant to buy cotton at high rates due to the difference between cotton and cotton yarn. Due to this, the trading volume was seen decreasing. It seems that there will be no businesses in the coming days because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The effects of this war are seen on the whole world but the global commodity markets are badly affected including cotton.
Ginners showed softness but buyers didn’t show interest. In the local cotton market, a slightly dropped was seen in prices due to less business activity. Internationally prices also showed a steep trend. KCA also dropped rs.100 and reached a level of Rs.20000 per maund. The local cotton market prices were between Rs 18700 ~20,700 per maund.
On Thursday Russia attacked Ukraine due to which the stock markets of the world crashed. The whole of the world was disturbed and there was a panic in businesses circles too regarding uncertain future. On the first day of the war, the rate of Future Trading of New York Cotton for the month of May increased by three cents but in the evening, it was settled and the commodity was available at 119 cents. There was uncertainty in the world regarding the future of this war but such type of wars could not last for long.
The unprecedented increase was witnessed in the rate of petrol due to the war and the rate of crude oil reached in between 103 to 104 per barrel due to which it is expected that rate of petrol will increase in the world, especially in Pakistan which is one of the biggest importers of crude oil; as a result of which rate inflation can increase in our country.
There will be negative effects of increasing prices of petroleum products on businesses. There is fear among the textile sector regarding its impact on exports. The exporters are already facing the issues of containers for shipments as a result of this war the issue of containers may worsen. The financial crunch is increasing in all the markets including cotton and yarn markets. There is uncertainty regarding the future of New York Cotton.
According to the information, the correction was seen in the rate of crude oil and commodities on the last day of the trading week. The rates of cotton in Brazil, Central Asia, Africa, and Australia remained stable till that.
According to the weekly USDA export and sales report during the week of 21-22 two lac forty-seven thousand bales were sold which was 56 percent more as compared to last week. China was on number one with 92,000 bales, Pakistan was on number two with 25,000 bales and Turkey was on number three with 24,000 bales.
In Pakistan farmers of cotton are getting good rates and the production of cotton is increasing. It seems that in this new season, farmers of cotton will take interest in increasing the production of this crop. It is expected that growing areas of Cotton in Sindh will be increased due to which it is expected that partial arrival of Phutti will be started by the end of May; however, supply of quality seeds and pesticides are important factors that play a crucial role in increasing the production of cotton.
The price of cotton was between Rs 18,700 to Rs 20,00 per maund while Phutti is almost finished. The price of cotton in Punjab was between Rs 18,900 to Rs 20,700 per maund
The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 1.29~1.43 Lbs. (18,700~20,700/ maund).
| Opening Of the Week | Closing Of the Week | Change | |
| Lowest | 131.00 | 131.00 | 0.00 |
| Highest | 144.00 | 144.00 | 0.00 |
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 92.35 on a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
In this week, crude oil showed mix trend and fluctuated both ways, hence closing on the negative side by the end of the
week.
In last day of the week, Crude Oil price closed at USD 91.59 with decrease of USD 0.76 cents as of opening figure of week.
| Opening of Week | Closing Of Week | Change | |
| Price | 92.35 | 91.59 | 0.76 |
EXCHANGE RATE
Last week values of the Pak rupee depreciated against the US Dollar, other major currencies showed mixed trends in both Interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with the figure of 1.11 and British Pound also
closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.33 against USD.
| Selling | Buying | |
| LC Sight | 176.73 | 176.68 |
| LC 120 Days | 175.76 | 175.71 |
| Open Market | 179.07 | 175.03 |
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with striking lower levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF rose the next day and later showed a downward trend till closing and closed on negative by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2022 closed at 118.63 with a downward of 166 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 115.34 with a drop of 208 points.
On the last day of the week, JUL 2022 closed at 104.34 with a decrease of 154 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 135.70 with the same level as the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week Index “A” showed a downward trend, hence rose at the last session and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 137.40 with an increase of 170 points.
| Opening of the Week | Closing of the Week | Change | |
| Index A | 135.70 | 137.40 | 1.70 |
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained stable in asking prices. Limited business was noticed in these price levels due to rigid prices of raw cotton in the Global market followed by NYCF. On the other hand, weavers were forced to buy on these stages as no chance to drop market in the shortcoming period and they need to acquire yarn to feed their looms.
PSF prices remained stable in the domestic market during last week ended. PTA, MEG prices were firm in the international market and crude oil prices also remained unchanging by end of this week. For next week, prices are projected to remain strong.
Faisalabad trading market was again slow and limited activity was seen. Traders were in selling their stocks and loom owners were in a tough position in yarn buying due to a surge in electricity and others overheads. Fine counts demand was normal and cautious sale of PV/Viscose reported due to increased raw fiber prices.
Followings are recent querying prices of yarn in local market based on ex mills:
| Count | Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS | Price US$/Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 3071 – 3181 | 695 – 720 |
| 20/1 CD | 3115 – 3292 | 705 – 745 |
| 30/1 CD | 3380 – 3535 | 765 – 800 |
| 20/1 CM | 3689 – 3800 | 835 – 860 |
| 30/1 PC 52:48 | 2607 – 3004 | 590 – 680 |
| 40/1 CM | 4286 – 4418 | 970 – 1000 |
| 60/1 CM | 5722 – 6053 | 1295 – 1370 |
| 80/1 CM | 8439 – 8748 | 1910 – 1980 |
EXPORT YARN MARKET
The export yarn market remained under sluggish business activity. Customers have floated good numbers of inquiries against which suppliers offered prices with slight flexibility. However, there has been limited business matured against offered prices.
The major reason was uncertainty around the globe after Russia- Ukraine conflict which also put a significant impact on the stock market all over the world. Customers are holding their requirements in anticipation of a decline in prices. however, they are continuously buying some portion in order to get deliveries for their running orders. Earlier this week, suppliers were not willing to drop prices but after a decline in US cotton and overall tension due to Russia/Ukraine, suppliers are showing interest to sell with flexibility.
It is expected that export yarn business activity will resume as suppliers are now showing interest in export due to slow business activity in the local market as well as serious financial crunch due to late payments. Deals are expected to be concluded with the drop of 3-5% depending on a supplier sales position. Chinese customers remained in the market and floated handsome numbers of inquiries. Customers have good demand and it is expected that business will be finalized in the coming week.
European customers were also active and floated decent numbers of inquiries. However, they are resisting high asking prices.
| Count | USD / Bale |
| 16/1 CD | 680 – 690 |
| 20/1 CD | 690 – 700 |
| 20/1 CM | 770 – 780 |
| 16/1 CM | 760 – 770 |
| 20/2 CD | 735 – 745 |
| 24/2 CD | 800 – 810 |
| 10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING | 625 – 650 |
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
The local fabric market remained dull throughout the week and limited trading activity reported towards the end of the week for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Finishers floated limited inquiries and resultantly limited business materialization reported in the market because buyers are of the opinion that market may ease down in coming weeks and therefore they booked only urgent requirements after tough negotiations for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Weavers offered their prices at last week level but ready to negotiate against any reasonable bid.
Currently weavers are booked in narrow width looms till mid-April’22 ~ 3rd week April’22 whereas wider width looms are booked till end April ~ early May’22 and offering onward deliveries.
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EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Far Eastern markets are still quite as customers are not placing orders in bulk quantities. Only limited quantities of regular items were booked during the week with selected suppliers. Asking prices were little bit soft about 1~2% due to slow demand and stable raw material prices.
Suppliers are booked till mid of April and offering end April onward deliveries.
Limited buying was witnessed for European customers however USA market remained slow during the week. Wider width suppliers are booked till end of April and offering May onward deliveries. Suppliers are expecting slow business activity in days to come.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports.
| Construction | Price US$/YD CNF Far East |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.64 – 1.66 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.80 – 1.82 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.34 – 1.36 |
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles inquiry flow was slow during the week as customers are expecting for a decrease in prices.
Due to uncertain political situations, worldwide customers are reluctant to purchase as all customers
are reviewing the situation. There is still around 5-7% difference in customer targets and factories prices due to which orders placement volume is low. It is expected for a decrease in prices for upcoming weeks
due to low business volumes in hand with factories.
The manufacturers are concerned due to low business in hand as factories are running at 50-60% capacities. There is also a financial crunch developing throughout the textile industry due to vessel congestion and change of payment mode of factories.
GARMENTS
Pakistan’s garment industry has been growing in recent months. Factories are delivering AW22 bulk orders and buyers are placing their developments for 2023 just as factories have started development for the SS23 season. In general, the factories are working at full capacity and are fully booked until End May 22. The lead time for initial orders was 90 days, but for AW22 orders, factories increased the lead time from 90 to 120 or 130 days due to overbooking.
Overall, costs don’t seem to be stable, factories are giving prices with the upcharge because of high prices of raw materials/shortages and customers are not able to settle for the upcharge, the reason being tag prices are the same.
Commodity prices are very unstable and subject to immense changes on a daily basis. We have been
observing this trend for many months, but at the same time, commodity prices will be unstable due to some global political issues. Because of this supply chain of raw materials can be interrupted. Polyester prices keep showing an upward trend.
GLOBAL NEWS
More investment from the European Union (EU) is expected in Vietnam in year 2022 in high-tech industries and green and sustainable businesses. ~ Fibre2Fashion ~
Euro monitor International has identified three challenges that are likely to affect businesses the most in 2022: Omicron, supply chain bottlenecks, and inflation. The weak economic start to the year due to omicron can affect 2022’s overall growth outlook. Risk factors beyond the control of companies will pose a threat to supply chains. Transportation bottlenecks and rising shipping prices are the main issues in the global supply chain, apart from lack of shipping capacity, rising energy costs, and truck driver shortage in the largest economies. Global inflation is predicted to rise from 4.3 percent in 2021 to 4.6 percent in 2022. Inflationary pressures will remain high in most key economies. ~ Fibre2Fashion ~
The United States has become the fourth largest importer of Portuguese products. The main export market for Portugal outside the European Union (EU), surpassing the United Kingdom, according to the US International Trade Commission (USITC), which recently said that Portuguese exports to the US reached $4.8 billion, a 32 percent rise compared to $3.6 billion in 2020. ~ Fibre2Fashion ~
Oil and gas prices are set to spike further as the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, but the impact on energy won’t be the only ramification. From wheat to barley, and copper to nickel, analysts tell CNBC that supply chains are set to be disrupted as the crisis takes a turn for the worse. Ukraine is considered the “breadbasket of Europe,” and an invasion would result in the food supply chain getting “hit hard”. ~ CNBC.
GOING FORWARD
About the future market, it is foreseen that yarn prices will be conferring to local cotton prices and
international trend of NYCF, the raw material factor will regulate the yarn price accordingly. Further prices trend will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
For the local cotton, the dominant driver for all markets this week was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. To that end, some traders worry that consumption of commodities, in general, will deteriorate due to the
European war, which is the biggest attack by one country against another in Europe since World War II.
Typically, war is hugely disruptive to trade and commerce. In the same way, future market will drive, which is unpredictable.
Going forward we may forecast slight correction in cotton and yarn market in coming weeks for local fabric sector.
The export yarn market showed slow business activity despite the presence of a good number of inquiries. Customers are resisting high asking prices. It is expected that orders will be closed in next week after negotiations of 3-5% in prices.
Generally slow demand was witnessed in export fabric market. Only urgent orders were placed by the
customers at 3~4% less price than last week. Suppliers are expecting slow demand for next couple of weeks.
The Home textile manufacturers are concerned due to low business in hand as factories are running at 50-60% capacities. There is also a financial crunch developing throughout the textile industry due to vessel congestion and change of payment mode of factories.
Overall Pakistan’s garment industry is growing and also facing some challenges i.e., raw material going upward and the global situation getting unstable.
