PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week, business activity remained stagnant due to fewer cotton stocks behind ginners. Few ginners had still limited stock of cotton of low quantity but they were demanding high rates. New crop arrival is expected by end of May and buyers are keenly awaited to feed the cotton to run units. In local market liquidity crisis led to the disturbance of cash flows of local buyers.
In the local cotton market, prices remained firm this week because of no business. Although, KCA was the same at the level of Rs.20,500 per maund. The local cotton market prices were between Rs 18800 ~ and 20,800 per maund.
However, an unprecedented bullish trend is prevailing in the international cotton market. On Wednesday Indian government ordered to abolish 11 percent import duty on cotton due to which the rate of cotton in the international market witnessed a further increase.
The production of cotton in India for the year 2021-22 decreased due to floods, rains, and attacks of Pink Ball worm while the demand for cotton increased due to which the rates were increased. The rate of cotton in India per candy (356 per kg) after increasing reached the historic level of Rs 95000. It is hinted that it will increase further.
In the current season, it is expected that India will produce 33.51 million bales. It is pertinent to mention here that last year production of cotton in India was 35.3 million bales. After abolishing import duty by India a bullish trend prevails in the international cotton market. It is expected that India will import 25 lac bales.
The rate of Future Trading for May reached 146.14 American cents and the rate of Future Trading for July reached 144 American cents which are the highest in eleven years after that it closed at 141.98 cents. In the same way during the trading of the last four days of the last week, an unprecedented fluctuation of 20 cents was seen in the rate of Future Trading of New York Cotton. The rate of Future Trading which started at 131 American cents after increasing by 15 cents reached 146 American cents and after that decreased by 5 cents and closed at 141.98 cents.
According to the weekly USDA export report more than fifty-nine thousand bales of cotton for the year 2021- 22 were sold which was six percent less as compared to last week. Turkey was number one with more than twenty-seven thousand bales; India was number two with more than twenty-four thousand bales while Indonesia was number three with more than six thousand bales. One lac thirty-two thousand bales of 2022-23 were sold, overall.
In Pakistan, the local cotton market remained stable, overall. There is uncertainty in the business community due to prevailing political unrest. It is not certain what the next plan of action is and what will be the new economic policy. It is expected that new general elections will be held in the next seven to eight months. How budget will be prepared as per schedule. State Bank of Pakistan had already a fixed the interest rate at 12.25 percent. The rate of the US dollar decreased after increasing the interest rate and after the decrease reached Rs 181 per US dollar. It is expected that a bullish trend will prevail in the Stock Exchange. However, there is a big question about the future economic situation.
The price of cotton was between Rs 18,800 to Rs 20,800 per maund while Phutti is almost finished. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 1.25~1.38 Lbs. (18,800~20,800/ maund).
|Opening Of The Week||Closing Off the Week||Change|
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 94.29 with a lower level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
This week, crude oil prices showed an upward trend and closed on the positive side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, Crude Oil prices closed at USD 106.95 with an increase of USD 12.66 as of the opening figure of the week.
|Opening of Week||Closing Of Week||Change|
Last week values of the Pak rupee apricated against US Dollar, other major currencies showed mix trend in both Interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.08 and British Pound also closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.30 against the USD.
|LC 120 Days||179.63||179.58|
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened extraordinary on higher levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed an upward trend in a whole week, although slightly dropped on closing but remain high with a striking rise by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2022 closed at 141.98 with upward of 669 points.
On the last day of the week, JULY 2022 closed at 140.71 with rising of 726 points.
On the last day of the week, OCT 2022 closed at 128.19 with an increase 530 of points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 150.05 with a lower level than the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week Index “A” dropped in the next session later rose till closing and by the end of the week closed on the positive side.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 155.90 with an increase of 585 points.
|Opening of the Week||Closing of the Week||Change|
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained stable in asking prices thus limited business was reported on existing price levels. Mills are sold for the next 2~3 weeks. PC yarn was constant and sellers were concerned to book the majority of orders. On the other hand, weavers were prerequisites to accepting these price segments.
PSF prices remained unchanging in the domestic market during the last week ended. PTA and MEG prices were secure in the international market and crude oil prices were also uncompromising by end of this week. For next week, prices are assessed to stay strong.
Faisalabad trading market upright activity was seen. Sales of PV/Viscose yarns were reported as periodic orders of PV/Viscose yarn started. Fine counts were also in demand and accurate deals were made. Traders were in pushing to lift their stocks and loom owners were in a tough position in yarn managing.
The followings are recent querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:
|Count||Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS||Price US$/Bale|
|16/1 CD||3062 – 3175||675 – 700|
|20/1 CD||3084 – 3289||680 – 725|
|30/1 CD||3379 – 3538||745 – 780|
|20/1 CM||3697 – 3833||815 – 845|
|30/1 PC 52:48||2563 – 2926||565 – 645|
|40/1 CM||4309 – 4355||950 – 960|
|60/1 CM||5443 – 5942||1200 – 1310|
|80/1 CM||8301 – 8618||1830 – 1900|
EXPORT YARN MARKET
The export yarn market showed dull business activity for another week in a row.
Customers floated small numbers of inquiries against which order confirmation was dull.
Suppliers were actively offering prices and aggressively followed the inquiries to get orders.
On the other side, cotton prices showed a handsome increase in prices, especially after the news of the duty-free import of cotton in India. Overall prices showed an upward tone but with very limited deals to mature.
Customers are not placing any bulk orders due to a lack of repeat / new orders from their end customers. This has created a sentiment of dullness which is also putting a serious impact on yarn prices.
If we overall analyze the situation, we might see an improvement in business activity in April as customers are now working on new buying as stocks of yarn are dropping.
Chinese customers floated good numbers of inquiries against which order materialization was sluggish. Customers remained in the market and placed orders only where they received desired price levels. At the same time, Covid is again hitting Chinese different regions which is another reason for slow business activity.
European customers remained on the sideline. Very limited numbers of inquiries were floated against which business activity was almost nil. They are still expecting a decline in prices which was the reason for slow business activity.
|Count||USD / Bale|
|16/1 CD||710 – 720|
|20/1 CD||725 – 735|
|20/1 CM||775 – 785|
|16/1 CM||765 – 775|
|20/2 CD||835 – 845|
|24/2 CD||860 – 870|
|10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING||610 – 635|
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In the current week under review, the local fabric market remained slow and dull throughout the week for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
The buyer floated limited inquiries and remained sidelined throughout the week owing to the prevailing
uncertainty in the local cotton and yarn market. Weavers are following inquiries and showing interest to confirm orders with reduced inflows, but buyers are still bidding approx 3~4% lower than the asking prices of weavers.
As a result, thin business activity was reported for both narrow and wider width fabrics. Currently, weavers are booked in narrow width looms till Mid-May’22 and also have coverage of their wider width looms till the 3rd week of May’22 to End May’20200and offering onward deliveries.
|Construction||Price US$/YD Ex Mill|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.65 – 1.67|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.80 – 1.82|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.34 – 1.36|
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Far Eastern customers remained aside from buying during the week due to slow demand in general.
Prices get stable and firm due to the rise in yarn prices as well as an appreciation of local currency against the US. dollar.
Currently, suppliers are booked till early May and offering mid-May onward deliveries.
European and USA buyers are floating inquiries cautiously with limited buying for only urgent orders,
The weaving units are not in a good position nowadays for both narrow and wider width sectors due to slow buying from the globe over the last couple of weeks.
Wider width suppliers are booked till the end of May ~ mid-June and offering end June onward deliveries.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports.
|Construction||Price US$/YD CNF Far East|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.66 – 1.68|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.80 – 1.82|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 ”S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.36 – 1.38|
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles situation is stable as per last weeks, few orders are placed by customers but large volume
business is not being placed. US big retailers have slowed down their goods lifting from factories and
monitoring the situation as stocks have piled up with them and they are planning according to the current situation. NYCF is one of the factors in customers’ decisions as they are waiting for the market to settle down.
The next few weeks are expected to remain the same as per the current situation and customers will keep
reviewing all factors before placing some volumes. There is also a financial crunch developing
throughout the textile industry due to the slow lifting of goods, vessel congestion, and change of payment
mode of factories which is a big concern for the industry.
Orders from apparel customers kept the garment factories’ production space filled till End July overall on average and offered End July onward deliveries. Raw material prices are showing a firm sentiment, hence garment manufacturers are also not ready to reduce prices beyond a certain level considering a firm sentiment of yarn prices from the spinners.
Sustainability remained an important element as most of the customers especially leading global brands
required eco-friendly products. Pakistani garment factories have got all the necessary setup and
compliance requirements to meet as required by customers. Along with sustainable products, customers
have shown interest in Special fibers as well as textured fabrics garments. Russia Ukraine war situation seems to be cooled down in the future which will ease customers to make buying decisions confidently as demand is there.
About the future market, it is foreseen that local yarn prices will be conversing with local cotton prices and international trends of NYCF, the raw material dynamics will control the yarn price accordingly. Further prices preference will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
Slow business activity was observed locally and internationally, on the other hand, market prices are driven on the higher side. The overall market is confused and bullish, buyers are in wait and watch mode. Local buyers are also waiting for the new crop arrivals which are expected by end of May.
This business was reported in the local fabric market. Customers are bidding 3~4% less than the offered prices. Slow business is expected in the coming days as well.
The export yarn market showed dull business activity despite a good number of inquiries. Suppliers are offering reasonable prices to catch orders but customers remained on the sideline of buying.
For home textile, the next few weeks are expected to remain the same as per the current situation and
customers will keep reviewing all factors before placing some volumes. There is also a financial crunch
developing throughout the textile industry due to the slow lifting of goods, vessel congestion, and change of payment mode of factories which is a big concern for the industry.
We expect 9 million cotton bales arrive in this season. This factor will add further order influx coming to the Pakistan garment industry as prices might be competitive depending upon raw material prices and actual cotton arrival status.