Market Report- Pakistan 3rd May 2022

PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET

During the last week in the local cotton market, Slow business activity was observed locally and internationally, in the local market prices remain firm while on the international front prices are unstoppable. The overall market is confused and bullish, buyers are in wait and watch mode but the market is flying without break, which makes buyers confused about decisions. Local buyers are waiting for new crop arrivals which are expected by end of May to early June. But still its firm point of view that prices will not drop despite the arrival of a new crop.

In the local cotton market, prices remained firm this week because of no business. KCA up rs. 500 to at the level of Rs.21,000 per maund. The local cotton market prices were between Rs 18800 ~ and 21,000 per maund.

In Pakistan, Cotton yields have fallen by 26 percent from 880 kgs/hectare to 652 kgs/hectare over the
last 10 years, while in Punjab the decline has been more pronounced and productivity has fallen by 36
percent. Pakistan is losing at least $ 5 billion directly on account of the low production of cotton. An
increase in cotton production will have a direct impact of $ 1 billion per 1 million bales and a 7 times multiplier impact on the fiscal flows in the economy.

Overall cotton area in this decade has declined by 33 percent from 2.9 million hectares to 1.9 million hectares. Almost 1.5 million farmers grow cotton out of which 75 percent is grown in Punjab while the rest is grown in Sindh, while the cotton area in Punjab has decreased by 50 percent from 2.53 million hectares (2012) to 1.28 million hectares (2022).

Fluctuation was seen in the rate of cotton in international cotton markets. The overall decrease was witnessed in the rate of Future Trading of New York Cotton because reports are coming that spell of rain is going to be started in cotton-producing areas especially, Texas.

The price of cotton was between Rs 18,800 to Rs 21,000 per maund while Phutti is almost finished. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 1.23~1.38 Lbs. (18,800~21,000/ maund).

	Opening Of the Week	Closing Of the Week	Change
Lowest	122.00	123.00	1.00
Highest	136.00	138.00	2.00

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil prices opened at USD 98.54 with a lower level as compared to last week’s closing figures.

In this week, crude oil prices showed an upward trend for a whole week, hence dropped in the last session but overall closed on the upward side by the end of week.

On the last day of the week, Crude Oil prices closed at USD 104.69 with a decrease of USD 6.15 cents as of the opening figure of the week.

	Opening of Week	Closing Of Week	Change
Price	98.54	104.69	6.15

EXCHANGE RATE

Last week values of the Pak rupee slightly appreciated against US Dollar, other major currencies showed mix trend in both Interbank and open markets.

At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.06 and British Pound also closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.26 against USD.

	Selling	Buying
LC Sight	185.60	185.55
LC 120 Days	182.60	182.55
Open Market	188.21	183.99

NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE

New York Cotton futures opened with slightly low levels on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.

NYCF showed an upward trend in a whole week, hence dropped in the last session but closed on the positive side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, JULY 2022 closed at 145.63 with a rose of 1022 points.

On the last day of the week, OCT 2022 closed at 128.66 with an increase of 430 points.

On the last day of the week, DEC 2022 closed at 122.07 with upward of 379 points.

LIVER POOL INDICES

Liverpool Index A has opened at 156.50with a lower level than the previous week’s closing figure.

In this week Index “A” showed a downward trend at the start of the week, while recovered in the last two-week session, hence closed on the positive side.

On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 159.50 with an increase of 300 points.

	Opening of the Week	Closing of the Week	Change
Index A	156.50	159.05	2.55

PAKISTAN YARN MARKET

The local yarn market went firm by following NYCF and the local cotton market. The restricted business was done with sales pressure in these exclusive price points & limited inquiry flow was seen in the market.

The raw cotton prices in the Global market are followed by NYCF. On another side currently, the acute pressure of sales in the challenging market is intently expected if NYCF’s inclination is downward.

PSF prices remained invariable in the domestic market during the last week ended. PTA and MEG prices were secure in the international market and crude oil prices were also uncompromising by end of this week. For next week, prices are measured to stay strong.

Faisalabad trading market was again unhurried and partial activity was seen. Traders were in selling their stocks and loom owners were in a tough position in yarn managing. Fine counts demand was the usual and reticent sale of PV/Viscose reported instead of increased raw fiber prices.

The followings are the latest querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:

Count	Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS	Price US$/Bale
16/1 CD	3132 – 3248	675 – 700
20/1 CD	3155 – 3364	680 – 725
30/1 CD	3457 – 3619	745 – 780
20/1 CM	3782 – 3921	815 – 845
30/1 PC 52:48	2622 – 2993	565 – 645
40/1 CM	4408 – 4454	950 – 960
60/1 CM	5568 – 6078	1200 – 1310
80/1 CM	8491 – 8816	1830 – 1900

EXPORT YARN MARKET

Export yarn market showed slow business activity for another week in a row.

Customers floated limited numbers of inquiries against which order materialization was almost nil. Although this week customers were willing to place orders with slight negotiations but due to bullish cotton sentiments, deals were not closed.

Suppliers are interested to sell but they also increased their prices with a firm and stable tone just to cash the opportunity due to upward cotton prices. This has ended up with lackluster business at the end of the week.

Chinese customers showed dull and slow business activity due to a lack of demand. Customers gave firm bids to confirm some business but unfortunately, suppliers were not active to sell the quantities and increased their prices. however, it is expected that business will be matured after the Chinese holidays.

European customers remained on the sideline. Very limited numbers of inquiries were floated against which business activity was almost nil. They are still expecting a decline in prices which was the reason for slow business activity.

Count	USD / Bale
16/1 CD	705 – 715
20/1 CD	720 – 730
20/1 CM	770 – 780
16/1 CM	760 – 770
20/2 CD	830 – 840
24/2 CD	855 – 865
10/1 CD SIRO YARN FOR WEAVING	610 – 635

PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET

Another week closed with slow and dull activity in the local fabric market for both narrow and wider width fabrics.

Finishers remained sidelined and shared limited inquiries and resultantly limited business materialization observed for both narrow and wider width looms Weavers are showing their desperation and following each inquiry for any firm bid.

Buyers are still bidding approx 5~6% lower than the asking prices of weavers. As a result, weavers could not extend their booking and still they have covered their narrow width till end May and wider width looms till early June~ Mid-June and offering deliveries onward.

Each weaver is carrying stocks due to which they are facing liquidity crunch.

Construction	Price US$/YD Ex Mill
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.64 – 1.66
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1	1.80 – 1.82
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.34 – 1.36

EXPORT FABRIC MARKET

Business activity for Far Eastern markets is not picking up since last couple of weeks as their end customers are not taking interest in fresh buying.

Despite of too much increase of NYCF, suppliers are keeping their asking prices stable as there is no good demand in the market.

Suppliers are chasing new orders very aggressively even they have reduced their looms flows about 10~15% just to offer competitive offers.

Suppliers are offering new deliveries with 30~40 days lead time now a days depending on the quality.

Flow of inquiries increased from European and USA buyers but their targets are too low.

Suppliers have reduced their profit margins but still they could not match customer target prices hence very limited booking was observed.

Wider width suppliers are booked for next 40~50 days in average and looking for new orders.

Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports.

Construction	Price US$/YD CNF Far East
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.64 – 1.66
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1	1.78 – 1.80
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.34 – 1.36

BED LINEN & TOWELS

Overall the home textile market was very volatile. The orders and inquiries flow was very less because of low demand in the market. As a result, the factories are working on their 40-50% loom capacity.

The retailers and large importers are in a wait a see situation as the cotton prices are expected to be nearly 40 percent higher, slow lifting of goods, port congestion, vessel delays worldwide, and many emerging global issues.

In Pakistan, the next week will be the Eid holidays and the market will be back to normal till Mid-May.

GARMENTS

In general, apparel customers kept the factory production area busy until the Mid of July 22. Now the
factories are offering deliveries from End July.

Commodity prices are showing strong sentiment, so given the strong sentiment for yarn prices, apparel
makers are also reluctant to cut prices beyond a certain level.

In a recent week, it has been observed, customers have held the orders and they are not showing any interest in placing big orders in the market. The only reason is the instability of raw material prices and the other factor is Ukraine-Russia War.

We also observed that some of the factories have stocks, customers are waiting to collect the products
due to low demand, and secondly due to a shortage of vessels. This situation will be clarified next month.

GOING FORWARD

About the future market, it is expected that Local yarn prices will be conversing to local cotton prices and
international trends of NYCF, and demand from the end customers. Further price preference will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.

Slow business activity was observed in cotton front locally and internationally, on the other hand, market prices are not stabilizing, and sharp changes are being observed. The overall market is confused and bullish, buyers are in wait and watch mode. Local buyers are also waiting for the new crop arrivals which is expected by end of May ~ early June.

For the local fabric, we expect slow sentiments and no change in market sentiments for coming weeks due to Eid festival holidays.

The export yarn market showed slow business activity due to the gap between asking and bidding prices.
customers are interested to place orders and it is expected that business will be matured around mid of May.

Export fabric business activity remained mixed during the week due to slow demand. It is expected that business activity may pick up from mid May onward.

The clothing industry is slow in general and looks like it will be in full swing once the new cotton arrives.

For home textile, the next few weeks will be the same like slow business activity. The customers will keep
reviewing all factors before placing some volumes. There is no clear picture of the market till Mid-May.