PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week in the local cotton market, activity remained good and buyers were interested to buy cotton due to the higher prices and difficulty to import of cotton. Hence later currency showed improvement vs us dollar which may helpful for the buyers in coming days if the price of PKR sustained on these levels.
In the local cotton market, the price of cotton showed a downward trend and prices reduced around 2000 to 3000 based on quality. The rate of cotton was Rs 15,400 to Rs 17,500 per maund. The price of Phutti is in between Rs 4,500 and 7,500 per 40 kg. KCA also dropped in week rs. 2200 in this week and reached at level of Rs.17,000 per maund.
Internationally prices have recovered, it’s not yet as high a recovery as we hope for but we’re currently up over 10 cents from the low. Prices seem to be shaking mostly between 90 and 96 waiting for more definitive signals to verify direction. Higher price opportunities (98 or better) are possible and downside risk (below 87) seems limited. BUT, anything is possible. We’re in a balancing act between US crop uncertainty on the supply side and economic and recession worries on the demand side. This week’s export report (for the previous week ending July 28) was horrible. The 2021 crop marketing year ends July 31. USDA’s projection is we’ll export 14.75 million bales for the year. Through July 28, exports are 13.92 million. It looks like will come up around 670,00 bales short of USDA’s projection. USDA’s monthly USDA world use/demand numbers show the erosion in demand.
Use for the 2021 crop year has been revised down 3.15 million bales or 2.6% since May. Projected Use for the 2022 crop year has been lowered 2.07 million bales or 1.7%.
The sowing of cotton crop 2022-23 season in Punjab is at final stage whereas sowing in Sindh has been
completed. According to the first estimate report, the cultivated area of cotton recorded at 1.485 million
hectares which comprises 81.5 % of target and about 16.1 % higher than previous year.
However, sowing area in Sindh was registered at 0.517 million hectares comprising 80.8 % of the target and about 13.0 % less than previous year. Total cultivated area of both provinces placed at 2.002 million hectares which shows 81.4 % against target and an increase of 6.9 % as compared to last year.
There was a tendency of increasing the price of cotton in the international cotton markets. The rate of Future Trading of New York cotton after increasing reached at 96.74 US cents per pound.
According to the USDA’s weekly export and sales report, sales for 2021-22 were 4,000 bales, significantly lower than last week. Vietnam took the first place by purchasing 6,400 bales. Ecuador came in second with 700 bales. Japan was third with 400 bales.
The rate of cotton in Sindh is in between Rs 15,400 to Rs 16,200 per maund. The rate of Phutti as per quality is in between Rs 4500 to Rs 6500 per 40 kg. In Punjab province, the price of cotton was Rs 16,000 to Rs 17,500 per maund, and the price of Phutti was Rs 5000 to Rs,6500 per 40 kg.
|Opening Of the Week||Closing Of the Week||Change|
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 93.89 with lower level as compared to last week closing figures.
In this week, crude oil prices traded on both ways with minor fluctuation and closed on lower side by the end of week.
In last day of the week, Crude Oil price closed at USD 89.01 with decrease of USD 4.88 cents as of opening figure of week.
|Opening of Week||Closing Of Week||Change|
In last week values of Pak rupee appreciated against US Dollar’s, and other major currencies showed mix
trend in both interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with the figure of 1.02 and British Pound also
closed on a negative note with a figure 1.21 against USD.
|LC 120 Days||216.29||216.24|
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with low levels on Monday as compare to previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed mix sentiment on both ways, hence rose on the last week of the session and closed on positive side by the end of week.
On the last day of the week, OCT 2022 closed at 101.68 with increase of 139 of points.
On the last day of the week, DEC 2022 closed at 96.13with upward of 207 points.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2023 closed at 93.80 with rose of 233 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 114.60 with a higher level of previous week closing figure.
In this week Index, “A” showed a downward trend in this week and closed on the negative side by the end of the week.
At the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 112.85 with a decrease of 175 points.
|Opening of the Week||Closing of the Week||Change|
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained measured and stable by following NYCF and the local cotton. Prices were descending due to the US $ weakening trend. Mills have to manage the production of yarn counts as per cotton coverage & sale position. Sellers are under pressure & Mills are carrying stocks and having cash flow problems.
Suppliers were enthralled in selling the yarn. Whereas buyers are in observing situations & the raw cotton prices in the Global market are followed by NYCF.
PSF prices were increased by Rs.5/kg dated 1st August 2022 by IFL in the domestic market. PTA and MEG prices were similarly descending in the international market while crude oil prices were unwavering by end of this week. For next week, PSF prices are expected to increase by Rs.3~5/kg & yarn rates of PC/CVC remain stable as well.
Faisalabad trading market average activity was seen. Sales of fine counts yarns were reported as periodic orders of PV/Viscose yarn started fine counts were also in demand and virtuous deals were made. Whereas Traders were persuasive with their stocks & management.
The followings are the latest querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:
|Count||Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS||Price US$/Bale|
|16/1 Carded Weaving||3005 – 3090||535 – 550|
|20/1 Carded Weaving||3062 – 3230||545 – 575|
|30/1 Carded Weaving||3230 – 3483||575 – 620|
|20/1 CM||3539 – 3708||630 – 660|
|30/1 PC Carded Weaving 52:48||2556 – 2753||455 – 490|
|40/1 Combed Compact Weaving||3989 – 4157||710 – 740|
|60/1 Combed Compact Weaving||5477 – 5730||975 – 1020|
|80/1 Combed Compact Weaving||7809 – 8033||1390 – 1430|
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market showed improvement in continues tendency of last week, hence later due to the extra ordinary appreciation of PKR vs USD again put the inquiries on hold or renegotiation’s mode.
Customers floated numbers of enquiries, but couldn’t materialized due to currency difference.
Suppliers went in wait and watch mode and waiting for the settlement of the PKR value. They were comparing prices with cotton which is on available on higher price so drop of price also put pressure on them.
Although cotton prices also showed downward trend both in domestic and international markets but suppliers remained silent in all scenario.
It is expected that yarn prices will stay at current levels as it has already touched rock bottom levels. Suppliers are aggressively buying cotton and this has given a boost to cotton prices.
Moreover, last week showed downward trend in cotton price, which may help suppliers to settle their prices gap due to currency devaluation.
Chinese customers remained in the market and some business was confirmed at customers desired levels.
European customers floated good numbers of enquiries against which few orders were placed. Suppliers floated very attractive prices and those customers who took decision at right time got attractive options.
|Count||USD / Bale|
|16/1 Carded Weaving||580 – 590|
|20/1 Carded Weaving||590 – 600|
|20/1 CM||675 – 685|
|16/1 CM||665 – 675|
|20/2 CD||640 – 650|
|24/2 CD||675 – 685|
|10/1 CARDED SIRO YARN WEAVING||495 – 520|
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In current week under review the local fabric market remained inactive and week closed with limited trading activity for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Finishers shared limited inquiries throughout the week due to uncertain situation prevailing in local and
international cotton markets, therefore limited business materialization observed for both narrow and wider width fabrics after tough negotiations.
Market players are confused and holding their bulk inquiries and bidding low which is approximately 4% ~ 5% due to which slow business activity reported.
Weavers are booked in narrow width looms till 3rd week of August 2022 and have coverage of their wider width looms till end of August 2022/early September and offering onward deliveries.
|Construction||Price US$/YD Ex Mill|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.46 – 1.48|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.61 – 1.63|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.21 – 1.23|
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Mixed trading activity was noticed from Far Eastern customers during the week under review.
Limited inquiries were received from Korea, China and Japan however no considerable buying was recorded.
Bangladesh customers are still negotiating their bulk orders but their target prices are lower about 6~8% which is not possible to achieve in current market situation.
Pak Rupee strengthen against USD about 6~7% during the week and expected to rebound further against USD in coming days as well.
Raw material prices were little bit soft but fabric prices remained unchanged due to PKR appreciation against USD.
Suppliers are booked till mid of Sep and offering onward deliveries. Some of them are in a position to offer Early Sep onward deliveries as they can start production in a week time.
Limited inquiries were received from European and USA buyers as customers are on summer vacations.
Wider width suppliers could not extend their deliveries during this week due to almost no demand in the
Offering prices were same as of last week however suppliers were interested to discuss target prices in range of 3~4%.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports.
|Construction||Price US$/YD CNF Far East|
|20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.40 – 1.42|
|16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1||1.56 – 1.58|
|20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.16 – 1.18|
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles overall situation is slow as inquiry flow has reduced around the globe due to a slump in demand, and new order placements are also not seen in the market. Factories are facing cancellation of
orders and slow lifting is impacting the cash flows as well as their production lines. On the other hand, the gas shortage is also a challenge for the Mills in Faisalabad that is delaying the overall production of the goods.
The next few weeks are expected to remain the same as per the current situation and customers will keep reviewing all factors before placing some volumes as demand is decreased all around the globe due to the
worldwide recession. Europeans are on holiday and it is expected that new inquiries and order flow will increase by the start of September.
There is also a financial crunch developing throughout the textile industry due to the slow lifting of goods, vessel congestion, and change of payment mode of factories which is a big concern for the textile
Overall, Pakistan’s garment sector is busy fulfilling its existing orders for the second quarter of 2022. Initially, the factories were pleased with the orders received, but later they stopped receiving orders according to their capacities and potential. During Covid-19 Pakistan’s garment sector moved towards expansion and increased its dyeing/sewing capacities to meet customer demand as they were oversold during the Covid-19 period.
On the other hand, the cotton market is very unstable, it fluctuates almost daily, and the customer is very
confused when they make large placements and ask for discounts due to the market instability.
As per the current status, factories are booked till End Sep/Mid Oct and offering onward deliveries. Also, we are anticipating new bulk orders with reasonable quantity by end of the 3rd quarter of 2022.
About the upcoming market, it is appraised that local yarn prices will drive local cotton prices and international trends of NYCF, and demand from the end consumers. Further price liking will be according to the demand and supply of different yarn counts which will lead to the price level.
Significant drop in the rate of local cotton market was observed, dry weather increase quality and arrival of cotton , due to which seems prices dropped. Drop of Dollar vs Pak Rupee may put the pressure on cotton as well in coming days. Buyers are keep on buying due to the shortage of cotton.
Local fabric market remained inactive during the week and expected to remain slow owing to prevailing
Export yarn market showed slow business activity as compared with previous week , although customers are ready to buy but suppliers increased prices due to appreciation of Pak Rupee against USD. Improved business is expected in coming week as well.
Overall fabric demand is slow Price are stable however suppliers are in a position to discuss target prices for 3~4%. It is expected that demand from end customer may rise from end this month only.
The garment industry is quite stable and expected more orders by end of the 3rd quarter of this year 2022.