PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week in local cotton market, moderate business activity was seen, due to the shortage of the quality lint. Buyers were interested but less availability lemmatized the activity, ginners and farmers increased their prices as well. Due to the increase in the price of cotton and Phutti, spinners were very much worried. The growing disparity amongst cotton, cotton yarn and cotton products refrained ginners from buying expensive cotton.
In the local cotton market, the price of cotton remained firm. The rate of cotton was Rs 19,000 to Rs 23,500 per maund. The price of Phutti is in between Rs 8,500 and 11,500 per 40 kg. KCA decreased in this week rs. 500 and reached at level of Rs.22,000 per maund.
Due to huge difference in demand and prices of cotton product compared to cotton, the mills have to bear irreparable losses due to which many mills shut down their operations and some other mills reduced production and number of shifts. There is a severe recession in the international markets. The demand for textile products has decreased, significantly.
Overall situation of cotton arrival is very grim in Pakistan because the crop was submerged under many feet of rainwater which stayed not for days but for weeks. Therefore, possibility of survival of the crop is very little.
Floods had hit the country when cotton crop was matured and ready for harvesting. India’s market witnessed a further decrease, as weaker sentiments from demand and supply sides prevailed.
Demand from weaving and garment industries was also uncertain. declining trend in cotton yarn continued due to weaker demand and bearish tone in the natural fiber. Traders are uncertain about the revival of buying from the weaving industry. Cotton prices have recorded downfall in north India due to higher arrival.
The world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies that would do them lasting harm as central banks across the world simultaneously are hiking interest rates unusually fraught circumstances in response to inflation.
Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades—a trend that is likely to continue well into next year.
The 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks this month. Beginning stocks are increased 250,000 bales, largely reflecting 2021/22 reported ending stocks data. Production is 1.3 million bales higher at 13.8 million, with higher production expected in most major producing states. Exports are projected 600,000 bales higher this month as the U.S. share of exportable supplies rises, and ending stocks are 900,000 bales higher at 2.7 million bales. The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 96 cents per pound, 1 cent lower than in August. The 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption.
World production is projected 1.4 million bales higher as more production in the United States, Australia, China, and Turkey offset decreases for Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Togo. World consumption is 460,000 bales lower, with reductions in Pakistan and Vietnam. World trade is unchanged as higher U.S., Australia, and Mexico exports offset lower expected shipments from Brazil and Uzbekistan. On the import side, a 200,000-bale increase in Pakistan’s expected imports offsets reduced expectations for Turkey and Vietnam. World ending stocks are 2.0 million bales higher this month, at 84.8 million bales.
| Opening Of the Week | Closing Of the Week | Change | |
| Lowest | 106.00 | 103.00 | -3.00 |
| Highest | 125.00 | 122.00 | -3.00 |
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 87.78 with a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
In this week, crude oil prices showed a downward trend, although rose in one session but closed on the
lower side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, Crude Oil prices closed at USD 85.11 with a decrease of USD 2.67 cents as of the opening figure of the week.
| Opening of Week | Closing Of Week | Change | |
| Price | 87.78 | 85.11 | -2.67 |
EXCHANGE RATE
In last week values of the Pak rupee deprecated against the US Dollar, and other major currencies showed mix trend in both interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.00 and the British Pound also closed on a positive note with a figure 1.14 against USD.
| Selling | Buying | |
| LC Sight | 234.82 | 234.77 |
| LC 120 Days | 226.13 | 226.08 |
| Open Market | 238.81 | 233.59 |
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened at a high level on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed a downward trend for a whole week and closed on the negative side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, OCT 2022 closed at 101.24 with a decrease of 897 points.
On the last day of the week, DEC 2022 closed at 99.29 with a downward of 642 points.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2023 closed at 96.15 with a drop of 622 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2023 closed at 93.90 with a lower of 623 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A has opened at 122.40 a higher level than the previous week’s closing figure.
In this week’s Index, “A” showed an upward trend, except for one session, and closed on the negative side by the end of the week.
At the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 121.25 with a decrease of 115 points.
| Opening of the Week | Closing of the Week | Change | |
| Index A | 122.40 | 121.25 | -1.15 |
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The local yarn market remained stable and firm in asking prices. Determine activity was seen in business. Yarn rates are firm due to the US dollar hike & Pak rupee devaluation. Buyers covered yarn due to a US $ hike and shortage of supply from spinners. Most mills are running partial productions with no equipped stocks available.
The raw cotton prices in the Global market are followed by NYCF. On another side presently the desperate pressure of sales in the stimulating market is intently expected if NYCF’s leaning is downward.
PSF prices continued stable in the domestic market during the last week ended. PTA and MEG prices were similarly descending in the international market plus the US $ parity effect on the import of fiber while crude oil prices were also fading by end of this week. For next week, PSF prices are expected to decrease by Rs.2~3/kg & yarn rates of PC/CVC are also augmented.
Faisalabad trading market was again substantial and partial activity was seen. The yarn was less in demand. Imperfect sales of PV and Viscose yarns were reported. The cash flow crunch remains thoughtful. Traders were in selling their stocks and loom owners were in a stimulating spot in yarn buying due to an increase in electricity and other expenses.
The followings are the latest querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:
| Count | Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS | Price US$/Bale |
| 16/1 Carded Weaving | 3464 – 3552 | 590 – 605 |
| 20/1 Carded Weaving | 3552 – 3728 | 605 – 635 |
| 30/1 Carded Weaving | 3875 – 4080 | 660 – 695 |
| 20/1 CM | 4197 – 4285 | 715 – 730 |
| 30/1 PC Carded Weaving 52:48 | 2935 – 3053 | 500 – 520 |
| 40/1 Combed Compact Weaving | 4726 – 4814 | 805 – 820 |
| 60/1 Combed Compact Weaving | 6076 – 6281 | 1035 – 1070 |
| 80/1 Combed Compact Weaving | 8600 – 8718 | 1465 – 1485 |
EXPORT YARN MARKET
Export yarn market remained sluggish and slow with very limited business activity.
Cotton prices in the international and domestic markets remained under pressure but it didn’t put any impact on local cotton prices.
Pakistan cotton prices remained firm and stable with limited business activity.
Suppliers kept on buying cotton to complete their running orders and to continue their productions.
Although they are facing heavy losses by buying cotton at such high prices whereas yarn prices are still very low.
At the moment, many spinning mills have closed their operations as they are unable to continue production due to hefty losses.
Yarn prices remained firm due to less availability in the market. Customers remained on the sideline after getting offers as suppliers are not showing a flexible attitude due to high costs.
If we analyze the ongoing situation, this will create a shortage of yarn supply in the market. Already local prices are improved as customers are left with very limited options for Yarns.
Chinese customers remained silent throughout the week. The major reason was the continuous depreciation of RMB against USD which has made imports expensive. Bids are there but no supplier in Pakistan is showing interest to place orders at such prices.
European customers floated very good numbers of inquiries. Some orders in normal and specialized yarns were also matured.
| Count | USD / Bale |
| 16/1 Carded Weaving | 585 – 595 |
| 20/1 Carded Weaving | 595 – 605 |
| 20/1 CM | 635 – 640 |
| 16/1 CM | 625 – 630 |
| 20/2 CD | 670 – 680 |
| 24/2 CD | 710 – 720 |
| 10/1 CARDED SIRO YARN WEAVING | 525 – 540 |
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In current week under review the local fabric market remained slow with limited business activity for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
Buyers floated limited inquiries and resultantly limited business materialization reported in the market. Local finishers unable to share bulk inquiries due to slow business activity worldwide. Weavers are under pressure and following buyers to get orders but customers are bidding very low so they are unable to materialize the available business and resultantly week closed with limited trading activity. Weavers raised their asking prices by approx 2% due to increase in yarn prices but buyers are resisting and are not ready to absorb it.
Currently, weavers are booked in narrow width till mid-October and covered their wider width looms till 3rd week of October’22 and offering onward deliveries.
| Construction | Price US$/YD Ex Mill |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.53 – 1.55 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.68 – 1.70 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.26 – 1.28 |
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Slow market sentiment was seen from Far Eastern markets during the week under review.
Limited inquires were exchanged by Korean, Japan, China and Bangladesh customers resultant limited buying during the week.
Yarn prices further increased about 3~4% during the week however fabric prices were same as of last week due to further depreciation of PKR against USD.
It is hard for the suppliers to extend their sales coverage thus they are struggling in current difficult market situation.
Currently suppliers are offering mid Oct onward deliveries. Most of them can start their looms within couple of days in absence of much orders in hand.
Flow of inquiries increased from European markets however limited buying was noticed.
Customers are targeting 6~8% lower than the offered prices.
Suppliers are ready to accept at break even price levels but customer targets are lower than the break even which ultimately loss for the suppliers.
Wider width suppliers are continuously chasing their buyers for the orders but market is not responding.
The demand is very limited hence suppliers could not extend their sales.
Prices were stable despite of increase of yarn prices.
USA market is quite since last few weeks as no considerable inquiries were reported.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports:
| Construction | Price US$/YD CNF Far East |
| 20CDX16CD/128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.52 – 1.54 |
| 16X12/108X56 63″ 3/1 | 1.66 – 1.68 |
| 20CDX20CD/108X58 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN | 1.25 – 1.27 |
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles overall business situation is slow and new business opportunities has decreased in recent
weeks. It is expected that this trend continues till end of September and some business activity is expected later this month / early October.
Demand is on lower side around the globe which is affecting business volume in Pakistan, also other
neighboring regions (especially India) are offering aggressive price options.
Prices are also not stable due to fluctuation in Cotton and Yarn prices, many factories are closing their part operations to minimize the overhead costs.
There is a financial crunch in industry and it is also effecting payments transition, it is badly hurting small factories and this can cause closure of factories.
GARMENTS
The apparel industry in general has shown normal activity in which the arrival of orders and inquiries has been much lower and it seems that this will slowly affect the apparel industry as well due to fluctuations in raw material prices. such as cotton and other dye materials.
It is known from various sources that many factories are operating below capacity and are struggling to attract new orders to fill their factory capacity. They are currently booked through mid-November and
will be offered after that. Customers are placing orders but only for important or urgent orders, the rest keep their orders until the situation is elucidated.
Sustainability remained an important element as most customers, particularly large global brands, demanded eco-friendly products. Pakistani garment factories have all the necessary facilities and
compliance requirements to meet the demands of the customers. In addition to sustainable products, customers have shown interest in garments made from specialty fibers and structured fabrics.
GOING FORWARD
About the upcoming market, it is assessed that yarn prices will lead to local cotton prices and international trends of NYCF, and demand from the end users. Further price liking will be according to the market and supply of different yarn counts, leading to the price level.
In this week, Pakistan cotton prices are firm due to the shortage of quality cotton with farmers and ginners that is why buyers are paying higher prices to get fine cotton. On the other hand, shortage of crop /damage of cotton land, PAK currency devaluation is driving prices firm to upward. Still, it’s too early to say about cotton arrival but import of cotton will remain costly.
For the local fabric market, we may foresee same trend to prevail in coming weeks without any abrupt change.
The export yarn market remained dull with nominal business activity due to high cotton prices and low yarn prices in comparison. Customers are still resisting high offers from suppliers but there is no flexibility from suppliers.
Slow demand for export fabric exists in all of the markets. Limited inquiries are there but the target prices are very low. Yarn prices are further increased due to high raw material prices. It is expected that further few weeks are difficult due to low demand.
Overall Pakistan’s garment industry is struggling and the situation is unclear until the big retailers start placing orders.
