Market Report- Pakistan 26th September 2022

PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET

During the last week in the local cotton market, moderate business activity was seen, due to the downward trend internationally and the shortage the quality lint. Buyers remained interested but less availability of quality cotton lemmatized the activity, ginners and farmers remained firm on prices in the expectation that prices may rise further. To increase the storage of quality cotton, some large groups of mills increased their purchases, while financially weak mills were seen as involved in cautious buying.

In the local cotton market, the price showed firmness and didn’t change throughout the week. The rate of cotton was Rs 19,000 to Rs 23,500 per maund. The price of Phutti is in between Rs 8,500 and 11,500 per 40 kg. KCA with minor changes stood at the level of Rs.23,500 per maund.

The price of cotton in the international cotton markets is also fluctuating. The rate of Future Trading of New York Cotton for the month of December after decreasing reached 92 American cents while cotton prices have come down significantly in India due to an increase in supply with the arrival of new season cotton. According to sources, cotton prices are expected to decrease further in India.

No doubt today’s economy can revisit the slogan as the U.S. is facing its toughest battle in 50 years with
inflation, rising interest rates, and a declining gross national product. In context with the cotton industry and the cotton market, industry traders, mills, retail outlets, and growers are all facing daily problems related to the question, “Do I buy (sell) today, or do I wait to another day?”. The cotton market itself has left most traders stunned. Mills suggest they face more uncertainty than they have ever known.

The market has smashed below all critical price support, even while we have preached the considerable
production issues of the year. Granted, we have complained plenty about a disappearing demand and the
limitation on any price advance. The point is that prices have fallen – even below the dollar market now.

Cotton price fundamentals are not particularly weak. Demand is weak, but production and ending stocks both salute higher prices. The dollar mark should have held. It did not.

We must remember that retailers have excess inventory and mills have excess yarn. Retailers are only very sparse buyers of apparel goods. Thus, mills are only sparse buyers of cotton. The market will have to live with the numbers it has until early October.

USDA has world cotton production and consumption both at 118 million bales. Likely, production will move slightly lower, and consumption will remain at 118 million bales. This will offer marginal support to prices. Fresh demand is not on the horizon and likely will not be until late 2023.

The economy has left everyone guessing with strong interest rate increases coming from the Fed, the economy will deteriorate further. Cotton is taking its hits now, but we cannot discount the possibility of prices moving 5- to-10 cents lower.

In India at a time when the central government is worried about the closure of 50% of the spinning mills in the country due to cotton shortages, the production in the October-September cotton year 2022-23 is expected to increase by about 15% provided the weather remains conducive till October offering relief to the entire cotton value chain. The area under cotton has increased to 128 lakh hectares against 120.55 in the previous year. As yields are also expected to increase due to excellent weather conditions, production of cotton is expected to increase to 360 lakh bales.

The U.S. dollar jumped to a new 20-year high against a basket of currencies, extending gains after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and struck a more hawkish than the expected tone in its latest meeting. The dollar index rose as much as 1% to 111.47, its highest level since June 2002.

The rate of cotton in Sindh is between Rs 19,000 to Rs 23,000 per maund. The rate of Phutti as per quality is in between Rs 9,500 to Rs 11,500 per 40 kg. In Punjab province, the price of cotton was Rs 19,000 to Rs 23,500 per maund, and the price of Phutti was Rs 10,500 to Rs,12,000 per 40 kg.

The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 0.97~1.19 Lbs. (19,000~23,500/ maund:

	Opening Of the Week	Closing Of the Week	Change
Lowest	100.00	99.00	-1.00
Highest	120.00	120.00	0.00

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil prices opened at USD 85.73 with a higher level as compared to last week’s closing figures.

This week, crude oil prices showed a downward trend, although rose in one session but closed on the lower side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, Crude Oil prices closed at USD 78.74 with a decrease of USD 6.99 as of the
opening figure of the week.

	Opening of Week	Closing Of Week	Change
Price	85.73	78.74	-6.99

EXCHANGE RATE

Last week value of the Pak rupee depreciated against US Dollar, other major currencies showed mix trend in both interbank and open markets.

At the end of the week, Euro closed on a negative note with a figure of 0.97 and the British Pound also
closed on a negative note with a figure of 1.08 against the USD.

	Selling	Buying
LC Sight	238.37	238.32
LC 120 Days	229.45	229.40
Open Market	242.55	237.25

NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE

New York Cotton futures opened with a lower level on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.

NYCF showed a downward trend in a whole week, hence rose in the one-week session but overall closed on the negative side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, DEC 2022 closed at 92.54 with a downward of 350 points.

On the last day of the week, MAR 2023 closed at 89.67 with a drop of 338 points.

On the last day of the week, MAY 2023 closed at 87.49 with a lower of 354 points.

On the last day of the week, JUL 2023 closed at 84.78 with a lesser of 336 points.

LIVER POOL INDICES

Liverpool Index A was opened at 121.25 with the same level as the previous week’s closing figure.

This week’s Index “A” showed a downward trend, hence rose in last week’s session but closed on the negative side by the end of the week.

On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 115.35 with a decrease of 590 points.

	Opening of the Week	Closing of the Week	Change
Index A	121.25	115.35	-5.90

PAKISTAN YARN MARKET

The local yarn market remained unwavering and firm in asking prices. The slow activity was seen in business.

Yarn Prices went up by Rs.10~15/Lbs. from the start of the week due to local cotton increased and whereas NYCF dropped by end of this week. Customers covered essential yarn due to a shortage of supply from spinners.

Most mills are running limited productions with no stocks available. NYCF follows the raw cotton prices in the Global market.

PSF prices were increased by Rs.5/kg dated 19th Sep 2022 by IFL in the domestic market. PTA and MEG prices were similarly sliding in the international market plus the US $ parity effect on the import of fiber while crude oil prices were also waning by the end of this week. For next week, PSF prices are expected to increase by Rs.3~4/kg & yarn rates of PC/CVC are also augmented.

Faisalabad trading market average activity was seen. The yarn was less in demand Imperfect sales of PV and Viscose yarns were reported. The cash flow crunch remains thoughtful. At the same time, Traders were persuasive with their stocks & management.

The followings are the latest querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:

Count	Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS	Price US$/Bale
16/1 Carded Weaving	3516 – 3605	590 – 605
20/1 Carded Weaving	3605 – 3784	605 – 635
30/1 Carded Weaving	3933 – 4142	660 – 695
20/1 CM	4261 – 4350	715 – 730
30/1 PC Carded Weaving 52:48	2980 – 3099	500 – 520
40/1 Combed  Compact Weaving	4797 – 4887	805 – 820
60/1 Combed Compact Weaving	6168 – 6376	1035 – 1070
80/1 Combed Compact Weaving	8730 – 8849	1465 – 1485

EXPORT YARN MARKET

The export yarn market is inactive due to clouds of uncertainty around the globe.

Customers remained in the market and kept on checking prices. A good number of inquiries have been received against which some deals were closed where customer got their required prices.

Cotton prices in the international and domestic markets remained under pressure but it didn’t put any impact on local cotton prices. Pakistan’s cotton prices remained firm and stable with limited business activity. Flood is still affecting some cotton-producing areas which have damaged crops in fields.

On the other side, USD Is continuously getting appreciated against PKR due to which local cotton prices
remained firm and stable.

Most of the spinners are forced to buy local cotton as they are not taking any position in imports due to the USD to PKR exchange rate problem.

Most importantly, yarn sale price does not match the parity of cotton which is causing them huge losses.

In Pakistan, after the closure of many spinning mills, yarn supply is limited due to which customers are buying available quantities to fulfill their orders.

Chinese customers remained silent throughout the week. The major reason was the continuous depreciation of RMB against USD which has made imports expensive. Bids are there but no supplier in Pakistan is showing interest in placing orders at such prices.

European customers floated excellent numbers of inquiries. Some orders in normal and specialized yarns were also matured.

Count	USD / Bale
16/1 Carded Weaving	575 – 585
20/1 Carded Weaving	585 – 595
20/1 CM	635 – 640
16/1 CM	625 – 635
20/2 CD	665 – 685
24/2 CD	705 – 710
10/1 CARDED SIRO YARN WEAVING	525 – 550

PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET

The local fabric market remained dull with limited business activity for both narrow and wider-width fabrics.

Buyers remained sideline and floated limited inquiries resultantly negligible business materialization reported in the market. Local finishers are unable to share bulk inquiries due to slow and confused business activity worldwide. Weavers are showing their desperation and following buyers to get orders but customers are bidding very low so they are unable to materialize the available business and resultantly week is closed with dull trading activity.

Weavers raised their asking prices by approx. 1~2% due to an increase in yarn prices but buyers are resisting and are not ready to accept this price hike.

Currently, weavers are booked in narrow width till mid ~ 3rd week October and covered their wider width looms till 3rd week~ End of October’22 and offering onward deliveries.

Construction	Price US$/YD Ex Mill
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.55 – 1.57
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1	1.70 – 1.72
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.27 – 1.29

EXPORT FABRIC MARKET

The global recession is hitting all customers as they are not into buying nowadays.

Only a few inquiries were exchanged by Korean, Japanese, and Bangladesh customers but no buying was
witnessed.

Asking prices remain the same as of last week although the yarn prices were firm during the week USD
compensated as it further rises about 2% against PKR.

Suppliers are offering prices at their break-even levels just to get some orders. At the same time, they are not ready to accept less than break even level and prefer to stop production instead of making orders at loss.

Suppliers are offering end Oct deliveries. They are ready to start the looms immediately against the orders if the yarn is available as loom coverage is not healthy nowadays.

Limited inquiries were noticed from European customers both for narrow and wider-width fabrics.

Customers are not able to make buying decisions due to low demand in general.

The cost of production increased much in European counties due to the hike in energy prices by about 30~40%.

Wider-width suppliers are very aggressive in offers as they are chasing every order closely.

Wider width suppliers are offering End Oct onward deliveries.

USA buyers remained aside from buying during the week due to almost no demand.

Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern ports:

Construction	Price US$/YD CNF Far East
20CDX16CD/128X60 –  63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.52 – 1.54
16X12/108X56 63″  3/1	1.68 – 1.70
20CDX20CD/108X58 63″  3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN	1.25 – 1.27

BED LINEN & TOWELS

Home Textiles’ overall business activity is slow and new business are very limited in recent weeks. We are forecasting that this trend will continue till early next year but it is expected that business activity will slightly improve in October.

Overall demand is on the slower side around the globe which is affecting business volume in Pakistan as well as other regions around the globe that supply Home Textile products.

Prices are also not stable due to fluctuation in Cotton and Yarn prices, many factories are closing their
operations partially to minimize the overhead costs. It is expected that prices will reduce in upcoming weeks due to a decrease in prices of NYCF and less demand around the globe.

GARMENTS

We have seen slow activity in the garment industry in recent weeks, many factories are reported reducing their production capacity as global inflation has impacted factories in general due to lower demand and cancellations of orders.

To date, the factories are working at 60% capacity and are waiting for more orders to keep them running, due to the fluctuations in the cotton and yarn market. The factories are confused about the supply and on the other hand, customers are also in wait-and-see condition until the market stabilized.

Some factories have already received bulk orders for SS23 from different brands and going forward, they have received FW23 Development for next season, which bodes well for Pakistan’s textile industry. The factories are booked until mid-November and will be offered afterward.

Sustainability remained an important element as most of the customers especially leading global brands
required eco-friendly products. Pakistan garment factories have got all the necessary setup and compliance requirements to meet as required by customers. Along with sustainable products, customers have shown interest in Special fibers as well as textured fabrics garments.

GOING FORWARD

About the upcoming market, it is evaluated that yarn prices will lead to local cotton prices and international trends of NYCF, and demand from the end users. Further price liking will be according to the market and supply of different yarn counts, leading to the price level.

The local cotton market remained firm due to the shortage of lint and deprecation of Pak Rs vs USD making import difficult. On the other hand, the international cotton trend remained on the downward side due to fewer orders of textile products. Overall market sentiment is very much confused and uncertain which made the business decision difficult.

Going forward we may foresee the same trend with slow market activity in the local fabric market.

The export yarn market showed sluggish sentiment for another week in a row. Customers kept on checking prices but order materialization was dull due to the wide gap between asking and bidding prices.

The export fabric market remained slow for another week due to less demand around the globe. Prices were stable during the week. Suppliers have their opinion that another few weeks are hard for business until the demand arises.

Overall garment industry observed slow activity in the market due to inflation and fluctuating in textile raw materials.