PAKISTAN COTTON MARKET
During the last week in the local cotton market, slow business activity was seen, due to the downward trend internationally. Quality issues in cotton also slow down the activity. Buyers were not interested to buy but ginners were interested in sales in fear that prices may drop further.
In the local cotton market, the price showed a downward trend. The rate of cotton was Rs 16,000 to Rs 20,000 per maund with a drop of 2,000~2,500 per maund. The price of Phutti is between Rs 6,500 and 10,000 per 40 kg.
KCA also dropped rs. 2,700 and came at the level of Rs.19,800 per maund.
The Punjab province, where cotton has been cultivated over 3.7 million acres of land this year, has obtained to date 5.7 million bales. The province is expecting an average yield of 17 maund per acre against 19 maund per acre last year. Due to floods and natural calamities, 0.234 million acres of the area under cotton cultivation have been lost. On the other hand, this year’s cotton crop cultivated 16% more area may not reflect the crop on size.
Pakistan must focus on the high production of cotton for the national economy. At this stage, better planning of seed and other agricultural inputs for the next crop should be done along with guiding the cotton farmers on clean picking and other issues.
In Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Turkey, the textile sector has reportedly closed down by almost 40%. So far import contracts of about 40 lac bales have been signed and more are being signed also.
India’s cotton production is set to increase to 355-360 lakh bales due to an 8.83 percent rise in sowing area, favorable weather, and good crop conditions in marketing year (MY) 2022-23 which begins on October 1. It will be 14-15 percent higher than last year.
Cotton is undervalued. But then, mills have only a limited demand for yarn. Thus, they remain extremely
reluctant buyers of raw cotton. Until buying picks up, there is little reason for cotton prices to retrace the selloff and return to the one-dollar mark. However, mills do recognize that they can replace yarn in inventory with lower-priced yarn and will continue to shop for nearby shipments of cotton.
Surely, the 85-cent mark will uncover enough price support to keep the market afloat. However, the uncertainty of the U.S. and the world economies are being traded now, not cotton. Uncertainty is in the headlights, and we cautioned you last week that market prices decline in the face of uncertainty. Again, cotton is not being traded on the contract just now, but rather on world economic uncertainty. The U.S. and world economies represent a proxy for cotton on the ICE contract.
Demand remains extremely poor, worse than expected. The most recent week showed only 13 countries were in the market for U.S. cotton. Of equal importance, five of those countries registered cancellation of prior sales greater than the volume of cotton they purchased this week.
Mills continue to fix prices at a faster pace than in the prior two years. Mills fixed 91,800 bales (December futures) and have been continually active at fixing the price on December futures for six weeks. These fixations have provided some support to the market. But, as mentioned three times now, overall U.S. and world economic uncertainty has simply dwarfed cotton supply-demand factors. Weekly trading marked the first week of the past seven that saw December fail to trade above the one-dollar level.
The rate of cotton in Sindh is between Rs 16,000 to Rs 20,000 per maund. The rate of Phutti as per quality is between Rs 6,500 to Rs 8,500 per 40 kg. In Punjab province, the price of cotton was Rs 18,500 to Rs 20,000 per maund, and the price of Phutti was Rs 7,500 to Rs,10,000 per 40 kg. The price of Phutti was in the range of USC 0.85~1.06 Lbs. (16,000~20,000/ maund).
|Opening Of the Week||Closing Of the Week||Change|
Crude Oil prices opened at USD 76.71 with a lower level as compared to last week’s closing figures.
This week, crude oil prices rose in the next two sessions and later showed a downward trend but
closed on the higher side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, Crude Oil prices closed at USD 79.49 with a decrease of USD 2.78 cents as of the opening figure of the week.
|Opening of Week||Closing Of Week||Change|
Last week value of the Pak, rupee appreciated against the US Dollar, and other major currencies showed
mixed trends in both interbank and open markets.
At the end of the week, Euro closed on a positive note with a figure of 0.98 and British Pound also closed on a positive note with a figure of 1.12 against the USD.
|LC 120 Days||220.46||220.41|
NEW YORK COTTON FUTURE
New York Cotton futures opened with a lower level on Monday as compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
NYCF showed mix trend in the whole week but overall accumulative showed a downward trend and closed on the negative side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, DEC 2022 closed at 85.34 with a downward of 303 points.
On the last day of the week, MAR 2023 closed at 83.45 with a drop of 249 points.
On the last day of the week, MAY 2023 closed at 82.09 with a lower of 208 points.
On the last day of the week, JUL 2023 closed at 80.28 with a lesser of 136 points.
LIVER POOL INDICES
Liverpool Index A was opened at 114.85 with a lower level than the previous week’s closing figure.
This week Index “A” showed a downward trend, hence rose in last week’s session but closed on the negative side by the end of the week.
On the last day of the week, LPI “A” closed at 107.10 with a decrease of 775 points.
|Opening of the Week||Closing of the Week||Change|
PAKISTAN YARN MARKET
The Local yarn market went vague following local cotton and a decrease in NYCF. The average activity was seen in business. Mills have no stock pressure due to limited production. Buyers getting only necessary yarn due to the unavailability of stocks. Mills have a financial crunch due to an increase in electricity Government tariffs whereas buyers are in noticing situations & the raw cotton prices in the Global market are followed by NYCF.
PSF prices were increased by Rs.3/kg dated 26th Sep 2022 by IFL in the domestic market. PTA and MEG prices remain soft in the international market plus the US $ parity effect in Pak rupees on the import of fiber. While crude oil prices were uncompromising and elevate by end of this week. For next week, PSF prices are expected to decrease by Rs.3~5/kg.
Faisalabad trading market was slow and partial activity was seen. The yarn was less in demand inadequate sales of PV and Viscose yarns were reported. The cash flow crunch remains thoughtful. At the same time, Traders were persuasive with their stocks & management.
The followings are the latest querying prices of yarn in the local market based on ex mills:
|Count||Price in Pak Rupees / 10 LBS||Price US$/Bale|
|16/1 Carded Weaving||3426 – 3512||600 – 615|
|20/1 Carded Weaving||3512 – 3683||615 – 645|
|30/1 Carded Weaving||3769 – 3940||660 – 690|
|20/1 CM||4054 – 4140||710 – 725|
|30/1 PC Carded Weaving 52:48||2884 – 2998||505 – 525|
|40/1 Combed Compact Weaving||4454 – 4597||780 – 805|
|60/1 Combed Compact Weaving||5796 – 6053||1015 – 1060|
|80/1 Combed Compact Weaving||8509 – 8623||1490 – 1510|
EXPORT YARN MARKET
The export yarn market remained dull and slow but better than a previous couple of weeks.
Customers remained in the market and kept on checking prices. A good number of inquiries have been received against which some deals were closed where customer got their required prices.
Cotton prices in the international market remained under pressure which put an impact on Pakistan prices as well.
As flood water is drowning and things are coming back to a normal routine, so, the arrival of cotton is increasing.
We might see handsome business activity in days to come as customers are now accepting the fact the prices are already touching rock bottom levels.
At the same time, slow demand from exporting countries is kept yarn prices under pressure.
In Pakistan, after the closure of many spinning mills, yarn supply is limited due to which customers are buying available quantities to fulfill their orders.
Chinese customers remained under slightly better activity and placed limited quantity orders where they
matched their required price with selected suppliers.
European customers floated very good numbers of inquiries. Some orders in normal and specialized yarns were also matured.
|Count||USD / Bale|
|16/1 Carded Weaving||575 – 585|
|20/1 Carded Weaving||585 – 595|
|20/1 CM||635 – 645|
|16/1 CM||625 – 635|
|20/2 CD||665 – 685|
|24/2 CD||705 – 710|
|10/1 CARDED SIRO YARN WEAVING||525 – 535|
PAKISTAN FABRIC MARKET
In the current week under review, the local fabric market remained dull for another week for both narrow and wider-width fabrics.
Finishers remained silent throughout the week. Weavers received limited inquiries and resultantly negligible business materialization was observed in the market. Local finishers are unable to share bulk inquiries owing to prevailing confused sentiments. Weavers are in desperation and following inquiries for confirmation but customers are bidding very low due to which weavers were unable to materialize the available business and resultantly week closed with dull trading activity.
Currently, weavers are booked in narrow width till 20th ~ 25th October and covered their wider width looms till 3rd week~ End of October’22 and offering onward deliveries.
|Construction||Price US$/YD Ex Mill|
|16CDX12CD / 108X56 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.56 – 1.58|
|20CDX16CD / 128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.71 – 1.73|
|20CDX20CD / 108X58 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.28 – 1.30|
EXPORT FABRIC MARKET
Another week went slow in Far Eastern markets as customers are not taking an interest in buying. Most of the units are partially working in a week due to overall slow demand and recession around the globe.
A limited number of inquiries were received from Asian and Far Eastern markets resulting in limited buying during the week under review.
Suppliers are keeping their prices at the lowest level just to get maximum available orders.
Currently, suppliers are booked for the next 2~3 weeks and offering onward deliveries depending on the quality and yarn.
A healthy flow of inquiries was noticed from European markets as customers remained in touch with their suppliers and checked prices for various items resulting in only limited buying for urgent orders.
Customers are bidding very low targets which were not possible to match by the supplier even the suppliers are offering the lowest possible prices nowadays just to increase their sales coverage.
Wider width suppliers are not getting support from their customers due to slow demand hence they are
offering 30~40 days lead time nowadays.
Special items like stripes and dobby looms have a good booking for the next 2~3 months as the number of such looms are very less in the market.
Following were the closing rates based on CNF Far Eastern markets:
|Construction||Price US$/YD CNF Far East|
|16CDX12CD / 108X56 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.54 – 1.56|
|20CDX16CD / 128X60 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.70 – 1.72|
|20CDX20CD / 108X58 – 63″ 3/1 “S” TWILL PAK CTN||1.26 – 1.28|
BED LINEN & TOWELS
Home Textiles’ overall business activity is slow and new business are very limited in recent weeks. We are forecasting that this trend will continue till early next year but it is expected that business activity will slightly improve in October / November but the overall situation will remain on the slower side.
Overall demand is on the slower side around the globe which is affecting business volume in Pakistan and as well as other regions around the globe that supply Home Textile products.
NY Market has completed and the overall impression is that. Retailers are carrying a huge inventory of goods and anticipating these to be sold at Christmas, but inventory levels are very high and retailers are concerned that these inventories might carry on till Quarter 1 of 2023.
Raw material prices are also on the decline due to low demand, many factories are closing their part operations to minimize the overhead costs. It is expected that prices will reduce in upcoming weeks due to a decrease in the prices of NYCF and demand around the globe.
The apparel industry in general has shown normal activity in which the materialization of orders and
inquiries has been much lower and it seems that this will slowly affect the apparel industry as well due to
fluctuations in raw material prices such as cotton and other dye materials.
It is known from various sources that many factories are operating below their capacity and are struggling to attract new orders to fill their factory capacity. They are currently booked through mid-November and will be offered after that.
Customers are anticipating new developments as several brands offer seasonal developments for AW23, half of which have shipped, with orders expected in late 2022 or
Sustainability remained an important element as most of the customers especially leading global brands
required eco-friendly products. Pakistan garment factories have got all the necessary setup and compliance requirements to meet as required by customers. Along with sustainable products, customers have shown interest in Special fibers as well as textured fabrics garments.
About the upcoming market, it is evaluated that local yarn prices will lead to local cotton prices and
international trends of NYCF, and demand from the end users. Further price liking will be according to the market and supply of different yarn counts, leading to the price level.
For the Local fabric, we forecast slow and limited activity to prevail for both narrow and wider width fabrics.
The export yarn market showed slightly improved activity as compared with the last couple of weeks. Customers are slightly getting interested in buying and we might see improved business activity in days to come.
The export fabric market remained slow due to slow demand in general. Asking prices are stable. Suppliers are offering the lowest possible prices but even then, no considerable business materialized. It is expected that it will take another few weeks to have good business activity in the market.
The overall garment industry is struggling towards getting new orders and the main causes are inflation and fluctuation in the raw material prices.